Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of July 13 /update 229

Event

Military operations continue in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of July 13. While Ukraine has maintained an offensive posture, significant territorial advances have been slow to emerge; Russia has continued to launch occasional counterattacks at several points on the line of contact. Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have largely focused on three sectors of the frontline over the reporting period, with ground attacks concentrated on the Bakhmut area in the Donetsk Region, as well as western parts of the Donetsk Region, and the frontline in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Ukrainian and Russian artillery and rocket strikes continue to take place along the entire front in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Shelling also continues on either side of the international border in the Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions.

Limited skirmishes have been conducted by Ukraine and Russia along the Svatove-Kreminna line in the Luhansk Region in the period July 7-13. Both Russia and Ukraine have reportedly conducted most ground attacks near Novoselivske, Vesele, and Torske, with little territory changing hands in the region. Russian forces may have entered the eastern outskirts of Torske around July 8, representing a minor advance. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces in this area are conducting defensive operations.

The heaviest combat operations continue to be reported in the Donetsk Region, most notably north and south of Bakhmut, as well as in the Avdiivka area. Ukrainian forces are reportedly approaching the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway from the Berkhivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka directions. Russian forces reportedly launched counterattacks north of Bakhmut on July 11-12 near Hryhorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka, which were reportedly repelled. Intense clashes continue to take place immediately west of Klishchivka, with both parties battling for tactical advantages in the heights overlooking the settlement. Russian forces have reportedly stepped up offensive operations in the Avdiivka area, with attacks reported near Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Marinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka in recent days; no territorial changes have been reported.

Elsewhere in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, Ukrainian attacks remain characterized by slow-paced advances through heavily mined areas defended by entrenched Russian forces. In the western part of the Donetsk region, combat continues to be reported in the Staromayorske area. In Zaporizhzhia Region, Ukrainian and Russian forces likely remain engaged in positional battles throughout the reporting period, particularly south of Orikhiv. Russian authorities report increased Ukrainian activity in Kherson Region and claim the possibility of a Ukrainian attack from the area of the Antonivskyi Bridge. Russian forces remain deployed in the Oleshky area.

Russian drone attacks targeting Kyiv intensified July 10-13. Early on July 13, Ukrainian air defenses intercepted around 20 loitering munitions; however, either a drone or drone debris struck an apartment building in the Podolskiy district of the city, killing one person and injuring several others. Similar airstrikes will almost certainly continue to cause damage and disruptions in Kyiv and other cities away from the frontline, although the overall trend points toward a general decrease in large-scale airstrikes against western regions. The decrease in aerial attacks is likely due to depleting Russian reserves; Russia is likely stockpiling weapons to intensify the air campaign in the medium term as Ukrainian forces continue counter-offensive operations in the east and south.

Context

As of early July, Russian forces are increasingly launching counterattacks along the line of contact, most likely as a form of active defense. Over the past year, Russian forces have reinforced static and in-depth defensive lines. Russia's fortified defensive positions continue to pose a considerable threat to Ukrainian infantry and armor. Neither side has attained aerial superiority. Kyiv is unlikely to launch a large-scale offensive operation in the immediate term to avoid risking valuable personnel and equipment. Therefore, Ukrainian forces will likely maintain pressure through counteroffensive shaping operations with the likely aim of overburdening Russian defensive positions and forcing a breakthrough.

Ukrainian artillery continues to target logistical nodes and ammunition depots in Russian-controlled areas. However, it appears that Russian forces have reconfigured their logistical supply chain, dispersing equipment and personnel over a wider area and in smaller concentrations. This has likely prompted Ukrainian forces to launch more long-range strikes, thus expending an elevated amount of advanced weaponry for reduced returns per strike.

It is likely that Ukraine has a significant reserve of land forces, including Western-supplied armored vehicles and troops trained in NATO countries. However, Kyiv is unlikely to deploy large amounts of freshly trained troops against fortified positions. Large-scale operations are more likely after Russian forces have depleted their reserves.

Russian aerial attacks on Kyiv no longer appear aimed at disrupting critical infrastructure but rather at depleting Ukrainian air defense munitions and revealing the locations of air defense systems. Strikes elsewhere in the country, including Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, are increasingly targeting industrial areas. Reports indicate that Russia continues to experience shortages of advanced precision munitions, so mass missile strikes remain sporadic.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.