20 Jul 2023 | 09:42 PM UTC
Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of July 20 /update 230
Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions of Ukraine as of July 20.
Event
Ukrainian forces are continuing offensive operations in the southern and eastern areas of the country - primarily in the southern Luhansk, western Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions - as of July 20. However, Ukrainian and Russian artillery and rocket exchanges continue to take place along the entire front in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Shelling also continues on both sides of the Ukraine-Russia border in the Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions. Reporting on both sides suggests that ongoing combat is delivering Ukrainian forces slow advances in a number of locations; meanwhile, Russian counterattacks are achieving varying levels of success. Nevertheless, substantial amounts of territory are unlikely to change hands in the coming days.
Skirmishes have continued along most of the Svatove-Kreminna line in the Luhansk Region July 13-20. Russian authorities have reported limited gains in the area of Kupyansk and south of Kreminna; these are likely active-defense tactical counterattacks against Ukrainian forces currently maintaining an offensive posture. Russian forces approaching Kupyansk might attempt to change posture in the area, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat behind the Oskil River and disrupting ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. Combat south of Kreminna is ongoing, although no significant exchange of territory was reported over the past week.
Donetsk Region saw the heaviest combat operations July 13-20. Ukrainian forces have maintained the offensive north and south of Bakhmut, as well as in the Avdiivka area. Authorities in Kyiv have reported limited Ukrainian gains around Bakhmut, and Ukrainian forces have likely established fire positions outside the settlement of Zaliznyanske near the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway. Ukrainian attacks will probably continue on both the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut over the coming days. Russian forces unsuccessfully launched limited counterattacks in both the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas, and Ukrainian troops are maintaining pressure on Avdiivka, Marinka, and Staromayorske.
Elsewhere in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, Ukrainian troops have been advancing slowly through heavily mined areas defended by entrenched Russian forces. In Zaporizhzhia Region, Ukrainian and Russian forces appear to have engaged in exchanges aimed at improving their positions in recent days, particularly south of Orikhiv. Russian authorities have reported increased Ukrainian activity in the Kherson Region and state that Ukrainian forces could launch attacks from the area of the Antonivskyi Bridge. Russian forces remain deployed in the Oleshky area.
Russian drone and missile attacks increased July 17-20. The Russian Ministry of Defense explicitly stated that strikes on July 17 were in retaliation for the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion, which Moscow blames on Kyiv. Additionally, strikes targeting port facilities and grain storage areas in Odesa increased sharply following the expiration of the UN-backed Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17. Russian aerial attacks on port facilities in Odesa and Mykolaiv will likely continue and could increase over the short term. Early on July 20, Russian missiles damaged the Chinese Consulate building in Odesa; direct retaliation by the Chinese government is unlikely. No further attacks were reported in Kyiv or Lviv over the past week.
Context
As of mid-July, Russian forces are increasingly launching counterattacks along the line of contact, most likely as a form of active defense. Over the past year, Russian forces have reinforced static and in-depth defensive lines. Russia's fortified defensive positions continue to pose a considerable threat to Ukrainian infantry and armor. Neither side has attained air superiority. Kyiv is unlikely to launch a large-scale offensive operation in the immediate term to avoid risking valuable personnel and equipment. Therefore, Ukrainian forces will probably maintain pressure through counteroffensive shaping operations in an effort to overburden Russian defensive positions and force a breakthrough.
Ukrainian artillery continues to target logistical nodes and ammunition depots in Russian-controlled areas. However, it appears that Russian forces have reconfigured their logistical supply chain, dispersing equipment and personnel over a wider area and in smaller concentrations. This has likely prompted Ukrainian forces to launch more long-range strikes, expending more advanced munitions for reduced returns per strike.
Ukraine probably has a significant reserve of land forces, including Western-supplied armored vehicles and troops trained in NATO countries. However, Kyiv is unlikely to deploy large amounts of freshly trained troops against fortified positions. Large-scale operations are more likely after Russian forces have depleted their reserves.
Following the July 17 expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a UN-backed deal to allow Ukrainian grain to leave Ukraine, Russian forces increased airstrikes against Odesa and Mykolaiv. Moscow’s decision to pull out of the deal appears definitive. Russian aerial attacks on Odesa’s infrastructure are likely to continue in the short term, while Russian naval forces have reportedly increased the presence of sea mines, further threatening cargo shipping in the Black Sea.
Russian aerial attacks on other regions no longer appear aimed at disrupting critical infrastructure but rather at depleting Ukrainian air defense munitions and revealing the locations of air defense systems. Strikes are increasingly targeting industrial areas. Reports indicate that Russia continues to experience shortages of advanced precision munitions, so mass missile strikes remain sporadic.
Regional curfews remain in effect throughout Ukraine following the declaration of martial law. Although each region sets its own regulations, curfew hours in most locations run from 00:01 until 05:00. The sale of alcoholic beverages is banned after 19:00, and manned checkpoints remain active on most major roads entering and leaving the main cities.
Advice
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.
