Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of July 27 /update 231

Event

Combat operations are ongoing in Ukraine’s Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions as of July 27. Ukrainian and Russian forces report artillery exchanges along the line of contact in the Kherson Region and across the international border in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. Over the past week, occasional nighttime Russian airstrikes have occurred in the Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Krivohrad, and Vinnytsia regions. On July 26, Ukrainian forces reportedly increased their operational tempo in Zaporizhzhia Region. The expiry of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and a subsequent increase in Russian air strikes in the region has prompted an increase in NATO surveillance and reconnaissance missions over the Black Sea, potentially increasing NATO-Russia tensions in the area.

While Ukrainian forces have seized the offensive momentum along much of the frontline, Russian forces continue to conduct attacks in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. In Kharkiv, Russian forces maintain pressure in the direction of Kupyansk on the Oskil river. Russian troops have launched several attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line throughout the reporting period in a likely attempt to fix Ukrainian forces in place. Russian forces may have made minor advances in the Kreminna area. No significant exchanges of territory were reported elsewhere in the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions over the previous week.

In Donetsk Region, combat operations continue to take place around Bakhmut. Several villages north and south of the city are contested as Ukrainian forces maintain pressure on Russian positions. Ukrainian forces have likely maintained fire positions near the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway, deterring further Russian assaults from this direction. Ukrainian attacks will probably continue on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut over the coming days. Elsewhere in the region, Ukrainian troops reported limited gains around Staromayorske; however, no significant advance has been confirmed in the area in recent days.

In Zaporizhzhia Region, emerging reports indicate Ukrainian forces launched a moderately successful armored assault on Russian defensive lines south of Orikhiv on July 26. Ukrainian mechanized forces reportedly approached the town of Robotyne before withdrawing; it remains unclear whether they have maintained advanced positions. Further Ukrainian assaults, as well as Russian counterattacks, remain likely in the area over the coming days.

Russian drone and missile attacks continued July 20-27. Russia has concentrated airstrikes on the coastline, targeting port areas in Odesa Region. On July 24, Russian drones struck port and grain facilities in Reni and Izmail, which are located on the Danube River bordering Moldova and Romania. Overnight on July 26-27, Russian forces targeted Kharkiv, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and Odesa. The port city of Odesa has been repeatedly targeted since the July 17 collapse of the grain deal, with damage reported in central and port areas, including five civilian ships and grain storage facilities; the latest attack, early on July 27, struck an administrative building in the port, killing one civilian.

Strikes targeting port facilities and grain storage areas on Ukraine’s coast will likely continue in the short term with varying degrees of success, depending on the number of missiles and loitering munitions that Russian forces can deploy daily.

Context

Ukraine’s methodical counteroffensive actions will likely continue to focus on three main areas in the immediate term: Bakhmut, the Mokri Yaly River area in the Donetsk Region, and areas south of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Following reports of a mechanized advance in Zaporizhzhia on July 26, Kyiv may increasingly focus offensive efforts on this point in order to achieve a breakthrough. Ukraine has reportedly employed fresh troops in the attack, likely capitalizing on Russia’s failure to rotate or relieve troops that have faced constant Ukrainian artillery bombardment and probing attacks since June. Although heavily mined, the area could become a salient for further Ukrainian attacks in the coming weeks.

However, Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia remain well entrenched and an increase in Ukrainian offensive activity in this region does not preclude major attacks taking place elsewhere along the line of contact. Additionally, Russian forces continue to conduct attacks and counterattacks through southern and eastern Ukraine, reversing Ukrainian advances in some locations.

Russian airstrikes increased sharply following the July 17 expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a UN-backed deal to allow Ukrainian grain to leave Ukraine. Russian naval forces on the Black Sea are reportedly preparing to blockade Ukrainian ports; Kyiv has requested NATO assistance securing a passage for vessels transporting foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports. Following Russian strikes on port terminals along the Danube River tensions have increased significantly in the region. Any further naval operation and major cargo shipping operations on the Black Sea will likely remain highly controversial for both sides in the short to medium term. NATO partners as of July 26 maintain pressure on Turkey and Russia to broker further deals, allowing passage of civilian cargo under UN mandate through the Black Sea.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.