Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of July 7 /update 228

Event

Military operations have intensified in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of July 7. Ukrainian forces continue to maintain an offensive posture, as Russian forces launch occasional counterattacks at several points on the line of contact. Most military activity is concentrated in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Ukrainian and Russian artillery fire occurs regularly along the entire front, with occasional long-range strikes on both sides; Russian forces continue to target Ukraine's central and western cities, while Kyiv's artillery and missiles concentrate on Russian command and control structures and logistical nodes. Shelling is reported on either side of the international border in the Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions and has reportedly intensified in the Sumy Region.

Ukrainian forces increased the tempo of their ground attacks at several points along the line of contact in the period June 29-July 7. Russian troops have conducted occasional attacks in Kharkiv Region, where combat had reportedly reduced over the past month. The heaviest combat operations in recent days have taken place near Kreminna in the Luhansk Region and Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk Region. South of Kreminna, Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in costly attacks and counterattacks led by infantry supported by armored vehicles. Russian paratroopers reportedly launched attacks on the northern flank of Bilohorivka in a likely attempt to deter Ukrainian offensives in the area; no territorial change has been confirmed since the previous reporting period.

Kyiv's forces continue to conduct attacks on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut. Reports indicate minor advances in both directions. Confirmed sightings of Ukrainian armored vehicles west of Klishchivka might indicate a future attempt to capture the settlement in the short term. West of Donetsk city, Ukrainian forces report minor gains around Avdiivka; Russian attacks along the line of contact in the Donetsk Region did not result in any confirmed advance. Ukrainian attacks remain characterized by slow-paced advances through heavily mined areas defended by entrenched Russian forces. Information consistent with previous reports confirms increasing difficulties for Russian logistics to deliver provisions, weaponry, and ammunition to defending troops. Ukraine's deep strike campaign targeting Russian logistical nodes likely continues to hamper Russia's supply chain.

In Zaporizhzhia Region, Ukrainian and Russian forces likely remain engaged in positional battles throughout the reporting period. Russian authorities report increased Ukrainian activity in Kherson Region and claim the possibility of a Ukrainian attack from the area of the Antonivskyi Bridge. Russian forces remain deployed in the Oleshky area.

Russian missile and drone attacks against western Ukraine intensified July 5-6, following a general decrease since mid-June. Early on July 6, three missiles hit the southern Sykhivskyi District of Lviv, killing four and leaving 37 people injured. According to Ukrainian authorities, the aerial attack was launched from the Black Sea and prompted a nationwide air raid alarm through the morning of July 6. Similar occasional long-range airstrikes will almost certainly continue to find some success for Russia, although the overall trend points toward a general decrease in large-scale airstrikes against the Western regions. The decrease in aerial attacks is likely due to depleting Russian reserves; Russia is likely stockpiling weapons to intensify the air campaign in the medium term as Ukrainian forces continue counter-offensive operations in the east and south.

The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in the Kherson region on June 6 continues to cause disruptions in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Authorities in Odesa and Mykolaiv report the increased presence of UXO along the coastline, likely dragged there by the Kakhovka floodwaters; numerous explosions have been reported in the waters of the Odesa Region. Occasional spontaneous detonations continue to occur.

Artillery activity continues daily in the Kharkiv, Kherson, and Luhansk regions. In Sumy Region, Russian artillery strikes have reportedly increased over the month of June and early July, likely as a response to the intensification of combat in other regions; Russian cross-border ground incursions remain unlikely.

Context

As of early July, Russian forces appear to have launched limited attacks through the line of contact, most likely as a form of active defense. Over the past year, Russian forces have reinforced static and in-depth defensive lines. As of early July, Russian defense poses a considerable threat to Ukrainian infantry and armor. Neither side has attained aerial superiority. Kyiv is unlikely to launch a large-scale offensive operation in the immediate term to avoid risking valuable personnel and equipment. Therefore, Ukrainian forces will likely maintain pressure through counteroffensive shaping operations with the likely aim of overburdening Russian defensive positions and forcing a breakthrough.

Ukrainian artillery continues to target logistical nodes and ammunition depots in Russian-controlled areas. However, it appears that Russian forces have reconfigured their logistical supply chain, dispersing equipment and personnel over a wider area and in smaller concentrations. This has likely prompted Ukrainian forces to launch more long-range strikes, thus expending an elevated amount of advanced weaponry for reduced returns per strike.

It is likely that Ukraine has a significant reserve of land forces, including Western-supplied armored vehicles and troops trained in NATO countries. However, Kyiv is unlikely to deploy large amounts of freshly trained troops against fortified positions. Large-scale operations are more likely after Russian forces have depleted their reserves.

Russian aerial attacks on Kyiv no longer appear aimed at disrupting critical infrastructure but rather at depleting Ukrainian air defense munitions and revealing the locations of air defense systems. Strikes elsewhere in the country, including Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, are increasingly targeting industrial areas. Reports indicate that Russia continues to experience shortages of advanced precision munitions, so mass missile strikes remain sporadic.

Following the June 23-24, Wagner Group mutiny and the subsequent agreement between Moscow and Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian combat capabilities in some contested areas have likely diminished. Possible purges and restructuring of security services in the short term are unlikely to impact the battlefield directly; however, medium- and long-term repercussions for the fighting forces are possible in relation to logistics, command and control, and general management.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.