Philippine Sea: Typhoon Saola is tracking northeastward across the Philippine Sea, northeast of Luzon, Philippines, as of early Aug. 28 /update 4

Event

Typhoon Saola (known in the Philippines as Goring) is tracking northeastward across the Philippine Sea, northeast of Luzon, Philippines, early Aug. 28. As of 11:00 PHT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 430 km (267 miles) northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a super typhoon late Aug. 28 before turning gradually to track northwestward through Aug. 29. Saola is forecast to make a close approach to Batanes Province, Philippines, early Aug. 30 before weakening slightly and making landfall over far southern Taiwan early Aug. 31. The storm is likely to weaken over the South China Sea and make another landfall as a typhoon over far eastern Guangdong Province, China, early Sept. 2. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geographical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued the following Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS):

• TCWS 1: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern and eastern mainland Cagayan, eastern Isabela, northern and central Aurora, Polillo Islands, northern and eastern Camarines Norte including Calaguas Islands, northeastern Camarines Sur, and northern Catanduanes provinces.

PAGASA has also warned of rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over northeastern mainland Cagayan Aug. 28 and across Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern mainland Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte provinces Aug. 29. Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Authorities evacuated more than 2,000 people in Narvacan, San Vicente, and Santo Domingo municipalities in Ilocos Sur Province, Baggao, Gattaran Gonzaga, Lal-lo, and Santa Ana municipalities in Cagayan Province, and Divilacan and Maconacon municipalities in Isabela Province. Reports indicate some damage to houses in Gonzaga Municipality. Several roads are closed due to flooding.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration