South China Sea: Super Typhoon Saola is tracking northwestward across the South China Sea, towards southern China as of Aug. 31 /update 7

Event

Super Typhoon Saola (known in the Philippines as Goring) is tracking northwestward across the South China Sea Aug. 31. As of 17:00 CST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 391 km (243 miles) east-southeast of Hong Kong.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken into a typhoon and make a brief landfall over the far southern edge of Guangdong Province, China early Sept. 2. After landfall, Saola is forecast to turn to track southwestwards away from China while weakening into a tropical storm through the afternoon of Sept. 3 before making sharp turns to track southwards the afternoon of Sept. 4 and northeastward through the afternoon of Sept. 5. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a red (highest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning; heavy rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) is likely across eastern Guangdong and southern Fujian provinces through the afternoon of Sept. 1. Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Reports indicate that China Railway has suspended several major train lines and Shanghai has halted trains heading to Guangdong. The Mainland Railway Authority has stated that train services between Hong Kong West Kowloon Station and mainland China have been adjusted or suspended through Sept. 4. Authorities in southern China have recalled fishing vessels back to port. Xiamen City in Fujian Province has suspended some passenger ferry services.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau