South China Sea: Super Typhoon Saola is tracking west-northwestward across the South China Sea, northwest of Luzon, Philippines, as of early Aug. 30 /update 6

Event

Super Typhoon Saola (known in the Philippines as Goring) is tracking west-northwestward across the South China Sea, northeast of Luzon, Philippines, early Aug. 30. As of 11:00 PHT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 756 km (470 miles) east-southeast of Hong Kong.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken into a typhoon through Aug. 31 as it tracks west-northwestward across the South China Sea. Saola is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it makes a close approach to Guangdong Province, China, Sept. 1-4, tracking westwards along the coast of the province. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geographical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued the following Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS):

• TCWS 2: Batanes and Babuyan islands

• TCWS 1: Ilocos Norte, northern Abra, Apayao, and northern and central Cagayan provinces

PAGASA has also warned of rainfall of 20 cm (8 inches) over southern Batanes and northwestern Babuyan islands, 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across Ilocos Norte, northern Apayao, and far northwestern mainland Cagayan provinces and the rest of Batanes and Babuyan islands, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over Ilocos Sur, Abra, northwestern mainland Cagayan, and the rest of Apayao provinces through early Aug. 31.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued a strong wind advisory across the southern regions and orange (second-lowest level on a four-tier scale) extremely heavy rain advisories across southern Pingtung County. Yellow heavy rain advisories are in place across Hualien and Taitung counties.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued an orange (second-highest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning; heavy rainfall of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) is likely across central and eastern Fujian Province through the afternoon of Aug. 31. Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Authorities in the Philippines have confirmed that more than 35,000 people are staying in 376 evacuation centers across Luzon, while more than 13,000 people are sheltering in other areas. One person remains missing in the Western Visayas Region. At least 52 houses were destroyed and 82 houses partially damaged. At least 54 roads and 28 bridges are impassable.

Authorities in Taiwan have canceled eight domestic flights between Taitung City and Green and Orchid islands Aug. 29 and dozens of ferries between Taiwan and Kinmen, Matsu, Green, and Orchid islands Aug. 29-30.

Authorities in southern China have recalled fishing vessels back to port. Xiamen City in Fujian Province has suspended some passenger ferry services.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau