Thailand: Increased security likely in Bangkok into at least mid-August following postponement of parliamentary vote to elect new prime minister /update 4

Event

Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture in Bangkok into at least mid-August after the country's parliament postponed a second vote to elect a new prime minister. On Aug. 3, officials announced plans to postpone the vote, which was slated to occur on Aug. 4, until a constitutional court ruling scheduled to be released on Aug. 16 determines the eligibility of Pita Limjaroenrat - the leader of the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) - to be renominated as a candidate. Related demonstrations are likely to occur over the coming weeks. Supporters of Pita and pro-democracy groups have previously led most of the demonstrations.

Potential gathering sites for rallies include prominent government buildings such as City Hall, Election Commission, Government House, Parliament Complex, and the Supreme Court, as well as public squares such as the Democracy and Victory monuments, as well as Lumpini Park and Ramkhamhaeng University. Other popular rally locations include the Asok, Din Daeng, and Ratchaprasong intersections. Previous well-attended gatherings have drawn thousands of participants.

Officials typically implement cordons and road closures near such demonstration sites, especially outside of government buildings. Security personnel have previously conducted mass arrests when demonstrators are perceived to be overly disruptive or if determined to be violating any public gathering permit requirements. Clashes between activists and police cannot be ruled out. Demonstrators could march along roadways, prompting localized transport disruptions. Localized business disruptions are also possible.

Context

Thailand continues to experience political instability following the May 14 general election. Despite winning the majority of the seats in parliament, the MFP has faced various legal and political challenges, including internal conflicts among coalition members, conservative opposition to policies, and the suspension of Pita from parliament. Moreover, the prime minister is elected by the 250-member Senate, consisting of members appointed by a committee controlled by the Thai military. Pro-democracy experts contend that the rule undermines electoral results and helps the military maintain political power.

Pita failed to secure the required majority during the first round of voting for the new prime minister position on July 13. He subsequently attempted to seek renomination for the leadership role on July 19, but lawmakers agreed to prevent a second parliamentary vote concerning his candidacy. The decision followed the constitutional court's suspension of Pita from parliament that same day due to his alleged business involvement with a media company. The next vote to elect a new prime minister was initially slated for Aug. 4 but has been delayed until after Aug. 16 due to a pending court ruling that will determine Pita's eligibility to be renominated as a candidate. Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai party and its prime minister candidate, Srettha Thavisin, have emerged as the next party that could form a new government, having won the second-largest number of house seats in the May 14 general election.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations as a precaution. If any violence occurs nearby, immediately leave the area and seek shelter at a safe, nongovernmental building. Plan for possible localized transport and business disruptions during any rallies. Remain cooperative if stopped by officials for security checks. Carry proper identification documents at all times. Heed all official transport and security advisories.