Thailand: Increased security likely in Bangkok through at least early-September ahead of parliamentary vote /update 5

Event

Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture in Bangkok through at least early September ahead of a second vote to elect a new prime minister. On Aug. 16, the Constitutional Court rejected a petition challenging a decision of Parliament to deny the election winner, Move Forward Party's (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat, renomination as a prime ministerial candidate. Lawmakers will vote for a new prime minister on Aug. 22. Related demonstrations are likely to occur over the coming weeks. Supporters of Pita and pro-democracy groups have previously led most of the demonstrations.

Potential gathering sites for protests include prominent government buildings such as City Hall, Election Commission, Government House, Parliament Complex, and the Supreme Court; public squares such as the Democracy and Victory monuments; and Pheu Thai Party (PTP) and Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) headquarters. Other popular rally locations include the Asok, Din Daeng, and Ratchaprasong intersections. Previous well-attended gatherings have drawn hundreds of participants.

Officials typically implement cordons and road closures near demonstration sites, especially outside of government buildings. Security personnel have previously conducted mass arrests when demonstrators are perceived to be overly disruptive or if determined to be violating any public gathering permit requirements. Clashes between activists and police cannot be ruled out. Demonstrators could march along roadways, prompting localized transport disruptions. Localized business disruptions are also possible.

Context

Thailand continues to experience a political stalemate following the May 14 general election. Despite winning the majority of seats in Parliament, the anti-establishment and progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) has failed twice to form the government, amid resistance from conservative lawmakers allied with the royalist military. The prime minister is elected by the 250-member Senate, consisting of members appointed by a committee controlled by the Thai military. Pro-democracy experts contend that the rule undermines electoral results and helps the military maintain political power.

Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai Party (PTP), which came in second in the election, is leading the formation of a new government with a coalition including military-linked parties and the third-largest Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), having withdrawn from a coalition with MFP on Aug. 2. The PTP coalition has agreed to endorse property tycoon Srettha Thavisin as its prime ministerial candidate.

In recent weeks, protests have occurred at PTP and BJT headquarters, as well as Pathumwan and Ratchaprasong intersections, following PTP's withdrawal from the MFP coalition. While protests have largely remained peaceful, any further delay in the political transition or perceived military interference in the formation of the new government could escalate the scale and frequency of demonstrations.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations as a precaution. If any violence occurs nearby, immediately leave the area and seek shelter at a safe, nongovernmental building. Plan for possible localized transport and business disruptions during any rallies. Remain cooperative if stopped by officials for security checks. Carry proper identification documents at all times. Heed all official transport and security advisories.