Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Aug. 10 /update 233

Event

Combat operations are ongoing in Ukraine's Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions as of Aug. 10. Ukrainian and Russian forces likely exchanged minor settlements throughout the week of Aug. 3-10; however, neither faction reports substantial territorial gains over the reporting period. Artillery exchanges along the line of contact in the Kherson Region and across the international border in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions continue daily. Over the past week, Russian airstrikes on Odesa and Kyiv have decreased compared with the previous period. Missile and rocket attacks, however, continue as a daily occurrence in other areas of Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense systems are continuing to destroy a high percentage of Russian missiles and drones, sometimes causing collateral damage. Occasional upticks in shelling, rocket, missile, and drone attacks on coastal areas remain highly likely.

Russian forces maintain pressure on the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Ukrainian authorities report possible buildups of Russian troops north of Kupyansk while probing attacks continue in the area; Ukrainian forces maintain a mostly defensive posture in both regions. Russian forces launch limited-scale offensive operations from the Svatove area in Luhansk without confirmed gains.

In Donetsk Region, combat operations continue to take place around Bakhmut. Heavy combat is taking place around the village of Klishchivka, south of Bakhmut. Several other villages on both the northern and southern flanks of the city continue to be contested as Ukrainian forces maintain pressure on Russian positions. Ukrainian attacks will probably continue around Bakhmut over the short term. Russian forces, meanwhile, have launched several attacks around Avdiivka over the reporting period, likely recapturing a minor settlement north of the town. In Western Donetsk, Ukrainian troops remain engaged in offensive operations from the settlement of Staromayorske towards Urozhaine. Occasional Russian counterattacks have had no effect on the Ukrainian defensive line in the area. Ukrainian forces will likely intensify their pressure in a southward direction.

In Kherson, reports suggest that Ukrainian forces have landed on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River in small numbers. Following the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, Russian defenses in the area have likely decreased, allowing Ukrainian forces to consider crossing the river for military operations, adding pressure to the Russian defensive lines. Reportedly, Russian paratrooper units continue to defend the Oleshki area.

In Zaporizhzhia Region, Ukrainian forces are continuing with offensive operations south of Orikhiv. Ukrainian mechanized forces are engaging Russian defenses around Robotyne and Pyatykhatky. Further Ukrainian assaults and Russian counterattacks will likely continue in the area over the coming days.

Russian drone and missile attacks continued Aug. 3-10. Russian loitering munitions have targeted Kyiv through the reporting period, although the tempo of attacks has decreased in comparison with the previous week. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) also targeted Khmelnitskyi and Rivne on Aug. 9-10; Khmelnitskyi was also targeted early on Aug. 6, prompting a reaction from the Ukrainian air defense. Although Russian missile attacks on the coastline and port facilities have significantly decreased over the reported period, further strikes in the short- and medium-term remain possible.

Context

Ukraine's methodical counteroffensive actions will likely continue to focus on three main areas in the immediate term: Bakhmut, the Mokri Yaly River area in the Donetsk Region, and areas south of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Following reports of a mechanized advance in Zaporizhzhia on July 26, Kyiv may increasingly focus offensive efforts on this point in order to achieve a breakthrough. Ukraine has reportedly employed fresh troops in the attack, likely capitalizing on Russia’s failure to rotate or relieve troops that have faced constant Ukrainian artillery bombardment and probing attacks since June. Although heavily mined, the area could become salient for further Ukrainian attacks in the coming weeks. Over the coming weeks, Ukraine might also intensify operations in Kherson, increasing pressure on Russian defenses.

However, Russian forces remain well entrenched along most of the line of contact. Additionally, Russian forces continue to conduct attacks and counterattacks through southern and eastern Ukraine, reversing Ukrainian advances in some locations. Reports suggest that the Kremlin continues to mobilize up to 10,000 personnel a month, providing replacements for units deployed on the frontline. Hence, Russian attacks are likely an attempt to deplete Ukrainian manpower and equipment while fixing Kyiv's forces in place, as Russian units may deploy larger numbers of troops.

Russian airstrikes, which increased sharply following the July 17 expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, have reportedly decreased over the week of Aug. 3-10. Russian naval forces continue to be deployed on the Black Sea, likely to target industrial and port infrastructure on the coastline; however, no credible naval blockade can currently be implemented, according to Ukrainian military reporting. Kyiv has nonetheless requested NATO assistance in securing a passage for vessels transporting foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports. On the Black Sea, Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) target Russian naval capabilities, including tankers, in a likely attempt to threaten the Russian economy and energy market.

Following Russian strikes on port terminals along the Danube River, tensions have increased significantly in the region. Any further naval operation and major cargo shipping operations on the Black Sea will likely remain highly controversial for both sides in the short to medium term.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.