Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Aug. 17 /update 234

Event

Ukrainian and Russian forces maintain a high tempo of combat operations in Ukraine's Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions as of Aug. 17. Ukrainian forces have reportedly concentrated their efforts in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. Russian forces likely maintained an offensive stance in Kharkiv and Luhansk regions throughout the reporting period. However, neither party has made substantial territorial gains in recent days. Artillery exchanges along the line of contact in the Kherson Region and across the international border in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions continue daily. Over the past week, Russian airstrikes intermittently targeted Kyiv, Volyn, Odesa, Lviv, and Kharkiv regions. In areas closer to the frontline, missile and rocket attacks continue daily. Ukrainian air defense systems are continuing to destroy a high percentage of Russian missiles and drones, sometimes causing collateral damage. Occasional upticks in shelling, rocket, missile, and drone attacks on coastal areas remain highly likely.

Russian forces have maintained pressure on Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Russian forces reportedly re-occupied the town of Novoselivske, while Ukrainian troops regained control over other minor settlements. A major offensive by either side in these regions remains unlikely, given the forces deployed. Heavy artillery exchanges continue in both regions, often causing civilian casualties in Ukrainian territory.

In Donetsk Region, combat operations continue to take place around Bakhmut. Ukrainian tactical advances and counterattacks are ongoing in the Klishchivka area, south of Bakhmut, while Russian forces launched limited offensives north of the city. The unclear picture around Bakhmut is a result of tight operational security on the side of both opponents; however, it is clear that combat operations are near-constant. Ukrainian attacks will likely continue around Bakhmut over the short term. Russian forces, meanwhile, continue to take the initiative around Avdiivka without recording any further advance over the reporting period.

In western Donetsk, Ukrainian troops reportedly drove Russian forces out of the village of Urozhaine following a week of offensive operations launched from Staromayorske. Combat operations in the area south of Velyka Novosylka are likely to continue over the coming weeks. Ukrainian forces will likely intensify their pressure in a southward direction.

In Zaporizhzhia Region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly captured the northern half of Robotyne; reports suggest that the town is part of the main Russian defensive line and, if taken, could allow quicker advances in southern Zaporizhzhia. Further Ukrainian assaults and Russian counterattacks will likely continue in the area over the coming days.

Russian drone and missile attacks continued Aug. 10-17. Russian loitering munitions have targeted Kyiv, Lviv, Lutsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Dnipro, Reni, and Zhytomyr throughout the reporting period, although the tempo of attacks has decreased in comparison with the previous week. The airstrike on Ivano-Frankivsk, reported on Aug. 11, resulted in the death of a civilian, while the attack on Lutsk on Aug. 15 caused at least three deaths. Lviv and Zhytomyr, also attacked on Aug. 15, were targeted in areas near or by their airports, which are now under military control and likely used as airbases and military logistical hubs. Although Russian missile attacks on the coastline and port facilities have significantly decreased over the reported period, Reni’s port facilities were targeted early on Aug. 17. Further strikes against coastal objectives in the short- and medium-term remain possible.

Context

Ukraine's methodical counteroffensive actions will likely continue to focus on three main areas in the immediate term: Bakhmut, the Mokri Yaly River area in the Donetsk Region, and areas south of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Following reports of a mechanized advance in Zaporizhzhia on Aug. 16, Kyiv may increasingly focus offensive efforts on this point in order to achieve a breakthrough. Ukraine has reportedly employed fresh troops in the attack, likely capitalizing on Russia's failure to rotate or relieve troops that have faced constant Ukrainian artillery bombardment and probing attacks since June.

However, Russian forces remain well entrenched along most of the line of contact. Additionally, Russian forces continue to conduct attacks and counterattacks through southern and eastern Ukraine, reversing Ukrainian advances in some locations. Reports suggest that the Kremlin continues to mobilize up to 10,000 personnel a month, providing replacements for units deployed on the frontline. Hence, Russian attacks are likely an attempt to deplete Ukrainian manpower and equipment while fixing Kyiv's forces in place, as Russian units may deploy larger numbers of troops.

Russian airstrikes, which increased sharply following the July 17 expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, have reportedly decreased. Russian naval forces continue to be deployed on the Black Sea, likely to target industrial and port infrastructure on the coastline; however, no credible naval blockade can currently be implemented, according to Ukrainian military reporting. On Aug. 8, Ukraine declared a “corridor” for civilian vessels that wish to leave Ukrainian waters. As of Aug. 16, one cargo vessel has left Odesa’s port.

Following Russian strikes on port terminals along the Danube River, tensions have increased significantly in the region. Any further naval operation and major cargo shipping operations on the Black Sea will likely remain highly controversial for both sides in the short to medium term.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.