Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Aug. 24 /update 235

Event

Combat operations are ongoing in Ukraine's Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions as of Aug. 24. Ukrainian forces concentrate their efforts south of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia, and through most of the line of contact in Donetsk. A Ukrainian team of special operation forces reportedly carried out a raid on occupied Crimea, likely causing Russian forces to raise awareness on their vulnerabilities in the peninsula. Russian forces likely maintained an offensive stance in Kharkiv and Luhansk regions throughout the reporting period without reporting any major gains. Artillery exchanges along the line of contact in the Kherson Region and across the international border in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions continue daily. Over the past week, Russian airstrikes intermittently targeted Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, and Khmelnitskyi regions. In areas closer to the frontline, missile and rocket attacks continue daily. Ukrainian air defense systems are continuing to destroy a high percentage of Russian missiles and drones, sometimes causing collateral damage. Occasional upticks in shelling, rocket, missile, and drone attacks on coastal areas remain highly likely.

Russian forces maintain pressure on Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Ukrainian authorities in Kharkiv region report an overall decrease in land assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions on Kupyansk; however, artillery strikes continue daily in the north and eastern parts of the region. Russian forces reportedly launched limited assaults at the town of Novovodyane, without recording any gain. Intelligence suggests that Russian forces in Luhansk and Kharkiv outnumber Ukrainian defending forces. However, a major Russian offensive in the area remains unlikely, as Moscow's troops would likely face logistical issues previously encountered and fierce Ukrainian resistance.

In the Donetsk Region, Ukrainian forces maintain mostly an offensive stance; Russian troops launch occasional counterattacks in Bakhmut,and Avdiivka, Marinka areas; however, no significant battlefield change has been confirmed over the reporting period. In Zaporizhzhia Region, Ukrainian forces continue to advance southward after capturing the settlement of Robotyne. The capture of the town could represent an important tactical gain for Ukrainian forces, which are likely preparing the advance in the direction of Tokmak, to eventually sever the Russian land bridge to Crimea. However, Kyiv remains cautious in giving information on the condition of its troops and updates on the ongoing counteroffensive. Further Ukrainian assaults and Russian counterattacks will likely continue in the area over the coming days.

Overnight on Aug. 23-24, a unit of Ukrainian special operation forces reportedly landed in the area of Olenivka, in Crimea. Although the objectives of the raid remain unclear, it appears that Ukrainian commandos were successful in landing, attacking, and leaving the area without any casualties while inflicting several losses on the adversary. The mission could have served as a reconnaissance operation with a strong symbolic value on Aug. 24, Ukraine’s Independence Day. Early on the same day, Ukrainian missiles destroyed S-400 batteries in that area.

Russian drone and missile attacks continued Aug. 18-24. Russian loitering munitions have targeted Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, and Khmelnitskyi regions throughout the reporting period, although the tempo of attacks has decreased in comparison with the previous week. The airstrike on Chernihiv reported on Aug. 20, resulted in the death of seven civilians and injuring at least 144 people. On Aug. 23 Russian loitering munitions targeted the area of Izmail on the Danube river, damaging grain silos and related facilities. Although Russian missile attacks on the coastline and port facilities have significantly decreased over the reported period, further strikes against coastal objectives in the short- and medium-term remain possible.

Context

Ukraine's methodical counteroffensive actions will likely continue to focus on three main areas in the immediate term: Bakhmut, the Mokri Yaly River area in the Donetsk Region, and areas south of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Following reports of a mechanized advance in Zaporizhzhia on Aug. 23, Kyiv may increasingly focus offensive efforts on this point in order to achieve a breakthrough. Ukraine has reportedly employed fresh troops in the attack, likely capitalizing on Russia's failure to rotate or relieve troops that have faced constant Ukrainian artillery bombardment and probing attacks since June.

However, Russian forces remain well entrenched along most of the line of contact. Additionally, Russian forces continue to conduct attacks and counterattacks through southern and eastern Ukraine, reversing Ukrainian advances in some locations. Reports suggest that the Kremlin continues to mobilize up to 10,000 personnel a month, providing replacements for units deployed on the frontline. Hence, Russian attacks are likely an attempt to deplete Ukrainian manpower and equipment while fixing Kyiv's forces in place, as Russian units may deploy larger numbers of troops.

Russian airstrikes, which increased sharply following the July 17 expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, have reportedly decreased. Russian naval forces continue to be deployed on the Black Sea, likely to target industrial and port infrastructure on the coastline; however, no credible naval blockade can currently be implemented, according to Ukrainian military reporting. Following the establishment of a corridor on Aug. 8, following the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the first civilian cargo vessel reportedly reached Istanbul unharmed after departing from Odesa on Aug. 16. Further civilian vessels might follow in the upcoming weeks.

Following Russian strikes on port terminals along the Danube River, tensions have increased significantly in the region. Any further naval operation and major cargo shipping operations on the Black Sea will likely remain highly controversial for both sides in the short to medium term.

Denmark and the Netherlands approved the donation of up to 61 F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, on Aug. 20; although these are unlikely to have any impact on the battlefield until mid-2024, the delivery of multirole fighter aircraft represents an important step in the long-term commitment of Western Europe to Ukraine's security.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.