Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Aug. 3 /update 232

Event

Combat operations are ongoing in Ukraine's Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions as of Aug. 3. Ukrainian and Russian forces report artillery exchanges along the line of contact in the Kherson Region and across the international border in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. Over the past week, regular Russian airstrikes have occurred in the Kyiv and Odesa regions. Missile and rocket attacks struck Dnipro on July 28, Kherson on Aug. 3, and Kryvyi Rih on July 31, causing damage and casualties. Ukrainian air defense systems are continuing to destroy a high percentage of Russian missiles and drones, sometimes causing collateral damage. Following the expiry of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russian air strikes have intensified against port infrastructure in Odesa and Izmail. Further shelling, rocket, missile, and drone attacks are highly likely.

While Ukrainian forces have seized the offensive momentum along much of the frontline, Russian forces continue to conduct attacks in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. In Kharkiv, Russian forces maintain pressure in the direction of Kupyansk on the Oskil River around Kalynove. Russian troops have launched several attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line throughout the reporting period in a likely attempt to fix Ukrainian forces in place. Russian forces may have made minor advances in the Kreminna area. No significant exchanges of territory were reported elsewhere in the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions over the previous week.

In Donetsk Region, combat operations continue to take place around Bakhmut. Several villages north and south of the city are contested as Ukrainian forces maintain pressure on Russian positions. Ukrainian attacks will probably continue on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut over the coming days. In Western Donetsk, Ukrainian troops have likely captured the settlement of Staromayorske as of Aug. 2 and will likely intensify their pressure in a southward direction.

In Zaporizhzhia Region, Ukrainian forces are continuing with offensive operations south of Orikhiv. Ukrainian mechanized forces are engaging Russian defenses around Robotyne and Pyatykhatky. Further Ukrainian assaults, as well as Russian counterattacks, remain likely in the area over the coming days.

Russian drone and missile attacks continued July 27-Aug. 3. Russia has concentrated airstrikes on the coastline, targeting port areas in Odesa Region. Port and grain facilities in Izmail were targeted on Aug. 2. Izmail is located on the Danube River bordering Moldova and Romania, and multinationally-owned and operated civilian shipping is in the port and its vicinity. Strikes targeting port facilities and grain storage areas on Ukraine's coast will likely continue in the short term.

Context

Ukraine’s methodical counteroffensive actions will likely continue to focus on three main areas in the immediate term: Bakhmut, the Mokri Yaly River area in the Donetsk Region, and areas south of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Following reports of a mechanized advance in Zaporizhzhia on July 26, Kyiv may increasingly focus offensive efforts on this point in order to achieve a breakthrough. Ukraine has reportedly employed fresh troops in the attack, likely capitalizing on Russia’s failure to rotate or relieve troops that have faced constant Ukrainian artillery bombardment and probing attacks since June. Although heavily mined, the area could become a salient for further Ukrainian attacks in the coming weeks.

However, Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia remain well entrenched, and an increase in Ukrainian offensive activity in this region does not preclude major attacks from taking place elsewhere along the line of contact. Additionally, Russian forces continue to conduct attacks and counterattacks through southern and eastern Ukraine, reversing Ukrainian advances in some locations.

Russian airstrikes increased sharply following the July 17 expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a UN-backed deal to allow Ukrainian grain to leave Ukraine. Russian naval forces on the Black Sea are reportedly preparing to blockade Ukrainian ports; Kyiv has requested NATO assistance securing a passage for vessels transporting foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports. Following Russian strikes on port terminals along the Danube River, tensions have increased significantly in the region. Any further naval operation and major cargo shipping operations on the Black Sea will likely remain highly controversial for both sides in the short to medium term. NATO partners, as of July 26, maintain pressure on Turkey and Russia to broker further deals, allowing passage of civilian cargo under UN mandate through the Black Sea.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.