Zimbabwe: President Emmerson Mnangagwa declared winner of Aug. 23 election /update 3

Event

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) declared incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) the winner of the presidential election late Aug. 26. Voting started on Aug. 23 but was extended to Aug. 24 due to logistical issues in parts of Harare and the provinces of Central Mashonaland and Manicaland. According to the ZEC, Mnangagwa secured 52.6 percent of the vote, while his main rival, Nelson Chamisa of the Citizen's Coalition for Change (CCC), received 44 percent. CCC leaders rejected the results, claiming they were not properly verified. International observers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), US, and EU also claimed irregularities during the polling process. While CCC leaders did not immediately announce demonstrations to oppose the results, protests are possible nationwide, particularly in Harare.

Heightened tensions are likely nationwide over the coming days. An increased security presence, as well as road traffic and business disruptions, are likely around political events. Clashes between security forces, opposing rival activists, and other forms of political violence are likely. Both Zanu-PF and the CCC have been implicated in incidents of violence in the past; while most violence is usually directed toward opposing supporters, it can occasionally affect bystanders and businesses. Violence could further escalate in the event of a legal challenge by either candidate following the results. Officials may impose additional restrictive measures, such as temporary curfews, internet shutdowns, or entry and exit restrictions, to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest.

Context

In 2018, Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF narrowly beat Nelson Chamisa after the latter's legal challenge was dismissed by the Electoral Commission. Opposition supporters staged a day of demonstrations in Harare, and after clashes with police, the military dispersed groups from the city center, allegedly firing live rounds on crowds. At least six people were killed in the violence. Police disrupted several other opposition gatherings following the violence. In 2023, Zanu-PF's majority seems even under further threat amidst high-profile corruption scandals, struggling public utilities, and severe political infighting.

Advice

Avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of violence. Exercise caution near demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent violence-affected areas. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Refrain from wearing yellow clothing due to its association with the lead opposition party (CCC). Follow instructions issued by local authorities. Leave immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building if violence erupts. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.