17 Sep 2023 | 05:32 AM UTC
Canada: Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee tracking east-northeastward off the southern coast of New Brunswick as of late Sept. 16 /update 12
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee tracking east-northeastward over Atlantic Canada late Sept. 16. Landfall over southern New Brunswick imminent.
Event
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee is tracking east-northeastward just off the southern coast of New Brunswick, Canada, late Sept. 16, having made landfall over western Nova Scotia the afternoon Sept. 16. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 170 km (105 miles) west-northwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall over southern New Brunswick late Sept. 16 and will weaken slightly as it tracks generally northeastward across Atlantic Canada. The storm will likely make another landfall over Prince Edward Island early Sept. 17 before entering the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The system will continue to weaken as it continues to track northeastward and passes over far northern Newfoundland late Sept. 17 before entering the Labrador Sea. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.
As of late Sept. 16, officials have issued the following coastal watches and warnings:
Tropical Storm Warning: New Brunswick from the Fundy National Park to Fort Lawrence and from Tidnish to Shediac, including Grand Manan Island; Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Avonport and then east from Lower East Pubnico to Tidnish; Prince Edward Island; Magdalen Islands.
Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming hours and days.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the coasts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and will likely spread through the rest of the tropical storm warning area through early Sept. 17. The system is forecast to produce further rainfall totals of up to 2.5 cm (1 inch) across parts of eastern Maine in the US and parts of New Brunswick and far western Nova Scotia in Atlantic Canada.
Storm surge is forecast to produce coastal flooding along parts of the Atlantic Canada coast within the wind warning areas. Water levels reportedly remain elevated along the coast of New England as of Sept. 16 and will likely start to decrease following the next high tide cycle. Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the US, and Atlantic Canada; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Authorities have reported one storm-related fatality in Searsport, Maine, after a falling tree struck a vehicle. Power outages are ongoing in parts of Atlantic Canada as Lee moves over the region; as of late Sept. 16, authorities have reported more than 120,000 customers without power in Nova Scotia, as well as more than 15,000 in New Brunswick. Flooding and fallen trees and power lines have blocked several roads in western Nova Scotia. Officials have canceled numerous flights and ferry services in the Maritimes. Flights are also canceled across parts of the northeastern US, including over 100 flights at Boston Logan International Airport (BOS). Over 50,000 customers are without power in parts of Maine as of late Sept. 16. The governors of Maine and Massachusetts declared a state of emergency in their respective states Sept. 14-15 ahead of the arrival of the storm.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
