India: Authorities likely to maintain an increased security presence in Karnataka State into at least early October amid protest activity

Event

Authorities are likely to maintain an increased security presence in Karnataka into at least early October amid a series of protest campaigns in several parts of the state. In recent days, activists have held varying types of demonstrations; primarily impacted areas include Ballari, Chamarajanagar, Chitradurga, Davangere, Koppal, Mandya, Mysuru, Ramanagara, and Vijayapura. Organizers seek to denounce the government's recent decision to release several thousand cusecs of Kaveri River water from Karnataka to Tamil Nadu.

Additional diverse gatherings are likely to occur over the coming days. Potential rally sites include the Cauvery Water Management Authority (CWMA) and the Cauvery Water Regulation Committee (CWRC) offices, as well as other prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Participation will vary by locale and sponsoring group; pro-Kannada organizations and farmers' unions are likely to hold larger gatherings, probably with hundreds of attendees.

Officials will almost certainly monitor any such rallies that materialize and may move to disperse overly disruptive crowds. Security personnel may implement enhanced measures, including temporary public gathering restrictions and/or vehicular checks, depending on the severity of the perceived threat. Reports indicate officials will maintain an increased security posture, particularly in Tamil-dominated neighborhoods. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between demonstrators and counterprotesters, cannot be ruled out. Demonstrators could march along and/or block roadways, prompting localized transport disruptions. Associated localized business disruptions are possible.

Advice

Avoid any demonstration that materializes as a standard precaution. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Allow additional travel time near gathering sites. Plan accordingly for possible localized business disruptions. Heed all official transport and security advisories.