Bay of Bengal: Severe Cyclonic Storm Dana tracking northwestward towards Odisha State, India, early Oct. 25 /update 2

Severe Cyclonic Storm Dana is tracking northwestward in the Bay of Bengal towards Odisha State, India, early Oct. 25. As of 02:30 IST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 294 km (183 miles) south-southwest of Kolkata, India.

Forecast models indicate that the system will make landfall over Odisha State north of Paradeep over the coming hours. After landfall, the system is expected to weaken into a cyclonic storm as it tracks northwestward then westward over eastern Odisha Oct. 25, before weakening further into a depression and then dissipating as it turns to track southwestward into western Odisha late Oct. 26. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming hours and days.

As of early Oct. 25, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a press release warning the storm system would bring extremely heavy rainfall to Odisha and Gangetic parts of West Bengal states Oct. 25, as well as strong winds in coastal areas. Storm surge of 1-2 meters (3-6 feet) t above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low-lying areas of Kendrapara, Bhadrak, and Balasore districts of Odisha State and East Medinipur District of West Bengal State during landfall, while smaller storm surge of 0.5-1 meter (1.5-3 feet) above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of South 24-Parganas District of West Bengal State and Jagatsinghpur District of Odisha State. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the northern and central Bay of Bengal Oct. 25. The IMD has issued red extremely heavy rainfall warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Odisha and Gangetic parts of West Bengal states early Oct. 25. Orange heavy rainfall warnings are in place for Jharkhand Oct. 25 and yellow heavy rainfall warnings have been issued for Jharkhand early Oct. 25 and Odisha, Jharkhand, and Gangetic parts of West Bengal Oct. 26. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities in Odisha State have established around 5,000 relief centers, and the government plans to evacuate around 1 million people from 3,000 at-risk villages across 14 districts before the storm arrives; around 300,000-400,000 people had been evacuated by late Oct. 23. More than 160,000 people have been moved into shelters in at-risk areas of West Bengal. East Coast Railways has canceled around 200 trains passing through and originating from Odisha over the coming days, with almost 200 other train services in West Bengal also canceled. Flight operations will be suspended at Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose International Airport (CCU) in Kolkata from 18:00 early Oct. 25 through 09:00 Oct. 25, affecting more than 200 flights. Biju Patnaik Airport (BBI) in Bhubaneswar will also be closed from 17:00 early Oct. 25 through 09:00 Oct. 25. Ferry operators have suspended services in coastal areas of West Bengal. Schools have been closed across 14 districts in Odisha Oct. 23-25, seven districts in West Bengal Oct. 23-26, and Jharkhand Oct. 25.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, flash flooding, landslides, and additional evacuations are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Any raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters would pose a serious health threat.