Nigeria: Protests likely nationwide through at least late October amid election challenges and elevated political tensions /update 2

Event

Protests are likely nationwide through at least late October amid election challenges and elevated political tensions. The opposition has challenged the outcome of the Feb. 25 presidential election. While the Supreme Court of Abuja upheld the victory of President Bola Tinubu in September, the two main opposition parties have appealed. The Court has 60 days to rule on the appeals. Election tribunals over the March. 18 state elections are also taking place across various states.

Since the elections, several political and civil society groups have carried out frequent gatherings across the country to denounce the results. In Kano State, officials announced a ban on all street protests on Aug. 21 amid elevated political tensions and deployed heightened security ahead of the verdict on Sept. 20. Other states may take similar measures to prevent or in the event of violence.

Heightened security is likely near the Court of Appeal in Abuja during the presidential tribunal and other state tribunals on ruling days. Other possible gathering locations include electoral commission buildings. Demonstrators may march along or block roadways, prompting localized transport disruptions. Clashes between police and activists are possible. Clashes involving rival political groups may also occur.

Context

Bola Tinubu (All Progressive Congress, APC) has won a tight electoral race to succeed to Muhammadu Buhari from the same party. Observers, including the EU mission, and the main opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), raised concerns over widespread irregularities during the general election. Reports of fraud, including vote buying and rigging, as well as acts of political violence and intimidation, were reported during the election period.

While several elections have been overturned in Nigeria, it has never happened at the presidential stage. On Sept 20, an election tribunal in Kano ordered a rerun of the election between the APC and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

Advice

Remain apprised of the political situation. Avoid discussing political topics in public. Keep away from all demonstrations and any areas where security personnel are deploying. Do not drive through protest roadblocks. Leave the area at the first sign of a security disturbance. Strictly heed the instructions of local authorities.