North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Lee tracking northward toward Atlantic Canada as of late Sept. 15 /update 10

Event

Hurricane Lee is maintaining Category 1 hurricane strength and is tracking north-northeastward in the western North Atlantic Ocean late Sept. 15. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 595 km (370 miles) south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly but maintain Category 1 hurricane strength as it continues tracking northward toward southeastern Canada through early Sept. 16. The system will likely transition into a post-tropical cyclone before making landfall in western Nova Scotia, Canada, the evening of Sept. 16. The post-tropical system is then forecast to turn to track northeastward and pass over southern New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island through early Sept. 17 before entering the Gulf of St Lawrence. The system will likely pass over far northern Newfoundland late Sept. 17 before entering the Labrador Sea and into the North Atlantic Ocean. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late Sept. 15, officials have issued the following coastal watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Watch: New Brunswick from the US/Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island; Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum.

• Tropical Storm Warning: Westport Massachusetts northward to the US/Canada border; Matha's Vineyard; Nantucket; New Brunswick from the US/Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island; Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper.

• Tropical Storm Watch: Prince Edward Island; Magdalen Islands; New Brunswick from Belledune to Shediac; Nova Scotia from Tidnish to Aulds Cove; Nova Scotia from Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Atlantic Canada Sept. 16. Tropical storm conditions will likely begin in southern New England late afternoon Sept. 15 and will spread through the rest of the tropical storm warning area through Sept. 16. The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5-13 cm (2-5 inches) across parts of eastern Maine in the US and parts of New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia in Atlantic Canada through late Sept. 16.

Storm surge of 0.3-0.9 meters (1-4 feet) is possible along parts of the New England coast if peak surges occur during high tide. Storm surge could also produce coastal flooding along parts of the Atlantic Canada coast. Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the US and Atlantic Canada; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Maine Governor Janet Mills declared a state of emergency Sept. 14 ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Lee.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center