South China Sea: Typhoon Saola is tracking west-northwestward across the South China Sea, towards southern China as of evening Sept. 1 /update 9

Event

Typhoon Saola is tracking west-northwestward across the South China Sea the evening of Sept. 1. As of 17:00 CST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 128 km (79 miles) east-southeast of Hong Kong.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken but remain a typhoon and make multiple landfalls over the far southern edge of Guangdong Province, China, early Sept. 2-afternoon Sept. 3 while skirting the edge of the province and turning to track southwestwards. Saola is forecast to make another landfall as a tropical storm over Hainan Province late Sept. 3 before making a sharp turn to track eastwards the afternoon of Sept. 4, weakening into a tropical depression over the province the afternoon of Sept. 5, and exiting into the South China Sea the afternoon of Sept. 6. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a red (highest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning; heavy rainfall is forecast across southern Fujian and eastern and south-central Guangdong provinces, with the heaviest rainfall of 25-30 cm (10-12 inches) likely in southern Guangdong Province. The Hong Kong Observatory has issued T8 warning signal (middle level on a five-tier scale) and has warned that the warning signal may be increased to T9 late Sept. 1. Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Reports indicate that regional airports across Guangdong Province and rail and ferry services across Guangzhou and Guangdong provinces have been suspended, while Shanghai has halted trains heading to Guangdong. Authorities in southern China have recalled fishing vessels back to port. Xiamen City in Fujian Province has suspended some passenger ferry services. The cities of Shantou, Shanwei, Jieyang Chaozhou, and Shenzhen in Guangdong Province have suspended schools Sept. 1.

Around 150 people have evacuated to temporary government shelters across Hong Kong. Hundreds of flights at Hong Kong International Airport (HKG) have been canceled; Hong Kong Airlines (HX), Cathay Pacific (CX), and Hong Kong Express Airways (UO) have suspended most flights Sept. 1-2. The Mainland Railway Authority has suspended all train services between Hong Kong West Kowloon Station and mainland China through Sept. 2, and has warned that train services might be adjusted or canceled Sept. 3-4. Citybus has suspended most routes except for routes B7 and S1. The stock market, all schools, and most government services in Hong Kong are closed Sept. 1.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration
Hong Kong Observatory