Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Sept. 15 /update 237

Event

Ukrainian and Russian forces maintain a high operational tempo in Ukraine’s Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions as of Sept. 15. Kyiv’s forces reportedly continue to launch assaults south of Orikhiv, Velyka Novosylka, and Bakhmut, while Russian troops report minor advances in the Kupyansk direction, maintaining pressure on the Svatove-Kreminna line. Over the reporting period Aug. 31-Sept. 15, Russian airstrikes intermittently targeted the Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv regions.

Moscow’s troops maintain pressure on Ukrainian lines in Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Intelligence suggests that Russian forces have advanced in the direction of Kupyansk and south of Kreminna. Minor gains were also reported northeast of Bakhmut. The latest Russian gains are unlikely to be part of a major offensive operation in the regions involved but rather a likely attempt to fix in place Ukrainian forces and attract further reserves, reducing the availability of exploitation forces destined for other areas along the line of contact. Assaults on the Svatove-Kreminna line and north of Kupyansk will likely continue in the short term.

Ukrainian forces have launched further assaults south of Bakhmut, where reports confirm gains in Klishchiivka; the town remains most likely divided between Russian and Ukrainian troops, and combat is ongoing. Further gains are reported south of Velyka Novosylka, where Ukrainian forces reportedly reached Novomayorske, a small settlement 15 km (9 miles) east of Staromayorske. In the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian forces remain engaged in combat operations south of Orikhiv, reporting minor advances east of Robotyne, and engaging in defensive operations, thwarting Russian counterattacks.

Over the reporting period Aug. 31-Sept. 15, Ukrainian forces launched missile strikes on Crimea, damaging Russian Black Sea Fleet vessels reportedly under repair on drydocks in Sevastopol’s shipyard. Ukrainian special forces reportedly assaulted Russian-held oil platforms on the Black Sea during an operation held early on Sept. 12. Additionally, Russian occupation officials in both Crimea and the Donetsk Region report an increase in pro-Ukrainian partisan activity; however, this remains unconfirmed.

Russian drone and missile attacks continued Aug. 31-Sept. 15. Russian loitering munitions and missiles targeted the Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Ukrainian air defense intercepted most of the loitering munitions and missiles threatening the cities; however, occasional hits were confirmed, alongside debris-related damage and civilian casualties, over the reporting period. Although Russian missile attacks on the coastline and port facilities have significantly decreased, further strikes against coastal objectives remain possible in the short- and medium-term.

Context

Ukraine's methodical counteroffensive actions will likely continue to focus on three main areas in the immediate term: Bakhmut and the Mokri Yaly River areas in the Donetsk Region, and areas south of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Kyiv’s forces will likely continue attempts to advance in the direction of Tokmak from the Robotyne salient in the Zaporizhzhia Region in a likely effort to seize control of transport routes through the area, hampering Russian logistics. However, Russian forces remain well entrenched along most of the line of contact and continue to conduct counterattacks to slow and occasionally reverse Ukrainian advances. Ukraine is likely engaged in degrading Russian forces deployed in Crimea; a sharp increase of loitering munitions and missile strikes alongside occasional special forces operations on the Black Sea seems to confirm this trend. Although a direct assault on Crimea remains unlikely in the short term, Kyiv could be attempting to isolate Crimea and Russian forces in the Kherson Region in preparation for further operations in 2024.

Russian airstrikes, which increased sharply following the July 17 expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, have reportedly decreased, although they continue with alternate fortune through mid-September. Russian naval forces continue to be deployed on the Black Sea, likely to target industrial and port infrastructure on the coastline; however, no credible naval blockade can currently be implemented, according to Ukrainian military reporting. Several civilian cargo vessels have navigated from Odesa to Istanbul, Turkiye, since Ukrainian authorities announced a sea corridor on Aug. 8 following the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. UK authorities report that Russian forces were responsible for targeting civilian vessels in Ukrainian ports on Aug. 24; the Kremlin has not commented on the attack. However, occasional attacks on civilian vessels docked in Ukrainian ports and the threat of harassment or boarding by Russian naval vessels remain high.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.