22 Sep 2023 | 02:26 PM UTC
Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Sept. 22 /update 238
Combat is ongoing in most regions of eastern and southern Ukraine as of Sept. 22; Ukrainian gains reported in southern Zaporizhzhia.
Event
Ukrainian forces have reported advances in parts of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions while maintaining pressure on Russian troops on several sectors of the southern and eastern fronts as of Sept. 22. Russian forces continue to assault Ukrainian lines in Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, recording minor gains. Russian airstrikes reportedly intensified Sept. 15-22, targeting the Kyiv, Rivne, Lviv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Khmelnytskyi regions.
In Kharkiv Region, Russian forces have reported minor gains in the direction of Kupyansk, where Moscow’s troops have maintained a high operational tempo since mid-August. Further Russian assaults have occurred in the Luhansk Region, west of Svatove and south of Kreminna, where Russian troops have also advanced.
Ukraine concentrated its offensive efforts in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions Sept. 15-22. In the Zaporizhzhia Region, reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have reached Russia’s main defensive line. Combat is ongoing around the recaptured town of Robotyne and west of the Russian-held town of Verbove.
Successful Ukrainian assaults were confirmed south of Bakhmut Sept. 15-22. The towns of Andriivka and Klishchiivka were reportedly recaptured; Russian forces remain engaged in heavy combat in the area. President Zelenskyy publicly declared on Sept. 22 the intent of Ukrainian forces to retake Bakhmut, although no clear timeline was given.
In western and central Ukraine, the tempo of Russian airstrikes intensified Sept. 15-22. Reports suggest that the Kremlin has resumed attacks on Ukrainian critical national infrastructure (CNI); Moscow is likely attempting to disrupt energy networks as colder weather approaches. Russian strikes on the coastline continue to damage port and industrial infrastructure and will likely cause medium and long-term disruptions to Ukraine’s economy.
Kyiv continues to launch missile strikes on Crimea and mainland Russia, damaging Russian Black Sea Fleet facilities, supply routes, and logistical nodes in an effort to disrupt supplies to Russian forces deployed in Crimea and southern Kherson. Authorities confirm that the Kerch Strait Bridge is intermittently closed due to undisclosed reasons, disrupting military transport and civilian road traffic in the area.
Context
Ukraine's methodical counteroffensive actions will likely continue to focus on three main areas in the immediate term: Bakhmut and the Mokri Yaly River areas in the Donetsk Region, and areas south of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Kyiv’s forces will likely continue attempts to advance in the direction of Tokmak from the Robotyne-Verbove salient in the Zaporizhzhia Region. While a breakthrough in the direction of Tokmak is possible in the coming weeks, direct Ukrainian artillery fire on Russian supply routes and force concentrations in the Tokmak area are more likely in the immediate term.
Russian forces remain well entrenched along most of the line of contact in the south and continue to conduct counterattacks to slow and occasionally reverse Ukrainian advances. Further Ukrainian assaults south of the Robotyne-Verbove salient will likely require Ukrainian forces to advance on well-defended positions over open terrain. In the east, Russian forces will likely continue to conduct assaults in Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, specifically north of Kupyansk and on the Svatove-Kreminna line respectively, as Moscow seeks to divert Ukrainian resources from further gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Russian airstrikes on Ukraine’s CNI reportedly increased through mid-September; however, Moscow’s tactics have changed over the past year. Airstrikes are more frequent, but involve fewer missiles and a higher number of loitering munitions. Airstrikes are likely less costly for Russia to maintain. Ukraine demonstrated exceptional reconstruction capabilities over the previous winter; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine’s CNI, stretching Kyiv’s capacity, rather than launching costly attacks whose effects would be swiftly mitigated by Ukraine’s emergency teams. Nonetheless, increasing power shortages are likely through the winter of 2023-2024.
Advice
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.
