Ethiopia: Increased tensions likely in Amhara Region through at least late November amid ongoing military operations /update 4

Increased tensions are likely in Amhara Region through at least late November amid ongoing security operations. Federal forces are undertaking military operations to integrate a local militia known as FANO into the government's security structures. Amhara activists opposed the decision and viewed the move as a way to reduce autonomy and leave the region vulnerable to attack. This decision has sharply increased tensions between the federal government and FANO.

As of Oct. 31, several armed clashes have been reported in the North Shewa, North and South Wello, and East Gojam zones. Additionally, the six-month state of emergency (SoE) declared on Aug. 4 remains in place as of Oct. 31. Civil unrest incidents have also led officials to impose various restrictions, including mobile internet access restrictions, in several areas.

The federal government will likely maintain a heavy army presence, including deploying armored vehicles across the Amhara region, particularly in major cities such as Bahir Dar, Gondar, Dessie, Mota, and Kombolcha. Fighting between the federal government forces and FANO is possible if the militia group refuses to surrender its weapons to authorities. The army may impose curfews, patrols, and checkpoints in affected urban areas. Ongoing security operations may result in travel restrictions and short-term ground transport disruptions. Intermittent internet disruptions are also possible in the coming weeks.