Ethiopia: Security situation likely to remain volatile in Amhara Region through at least late October /update 3

Event

The security situation in Amahra Region will likely remain volatile through at least late October amid ongoing hostilities between troops of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and local militias known as FANO.

Armed clashes across the Amhara Region reportedly continue in several areas as of Oct. 2. The government claimed it foiled an attack in Gondar city on Sept. 24 and killed at least 50 FANO fighters. FANO fighters rejected the claim and asserted that they had successfully released some combatants held by the ENDF forces. Additionally, the six-month state of emergency (SoE), declared Aug. 4, remains in place as of Oct. 2. Civil unrest incidents have also led officials to impose various restrictions, including mobile internet access restrictions, in several areas.

The federal government will likely maintain a heavy army presence, including deploying armored vehicles, across the Amhara region, particularly in major cities such as Bahir Dar, Gondar, Dessie, Mota, and Kombolcha. Fighting between the federal government forces and FANO is possible if the latter refuses to hand its weapons to authorities. The army may further implement a security lockdown in the affected urban centers through curfews, patrols, and checkpoints. Ongoing security operations may result in travel restrictions and short-term ground transport disruptions. Intermittent internet disruptions are also possible in the coming weeks.

Context

Federal security personnel are currently undertaking military operations to integrate the FANO militia into several security structures, including the federal or regional police and the national army. Amhara activists oppose the decision and view the move as a way to reduce autonomy and leave the region vulnerable to attacks. This decision has sharply increased tensions between the federal government and FANO.

The federal government's move came despite strong criticism, especially from ethnic-Amhara activists and members of the National Movement of the Amhara (NaMA) party, who see the move as a way for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to disarm FANO so that the neighboring Tigray Region can regain control of occupied disputed territories, (Wolkait) Western Tigray and Raya zone (Southern Tigray). Amhara forces controlled Wolkait and Raya zones in November 2020 following the military confrontation between the federal troops and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels. FANO fought alongside the national forces against TPLF rebels between 2020-2022.

Fighting between the federal government and TPLF rebels ended on Nov. 2 after signing a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa. Several steps have been taken to implement the peace deal, including forming an Interim Regional Administration (IRA) and removing the TPLF from the designated terrorist list. Despite positive trends, key issues remain, including the withdrawal of non-government forces (Eritrean troops and Amhara militias) from Tigray territory.

Advice

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Heed the instructions of the security forces. Travel with personal identification documents to facilitate transit through checkpoints. Liaise with trusted local contacts before traveling to or within Amhara Region. Reconfirm all transport services before departure. Avoid concentrations of security personnel and travel at night. Plan for possible short-term telecommunication disruptions.