Madagascar: Further protests, clashes likely nationwide ahead of presidential election Nov. 16 /update 2

Event

Further protests are likely in Madagascar through mid-November during the political campaign and ahead of the presidential elections on Nov. 16. The High Constitutional Court (HCC) announced that the first round of voting, originally scheduled for Nov. 9, would be postponed by a week due to one of the candidates being injured during a protest. The second round of voting is still set for Dec. 20. Despite a ban on outdoor rallies, protests have been occurring regularly since Oct. 2, leading to clashes with security forces across the capital, Antananarivo, especially along the Avenue de l'Independence and near the Place du 13 Mai. Authorities have reportedly increased police presence in the capital to contain any political rallies, and briefly imposed a city-wide curfew on Oct. 7 before lifting it the same day.

Political gatherings and further clashes are likely nationwide ahead of the elections, especially in Antananarivo. Campaigns have historically proven tense periods in Madagascar, involving an increased risk of political violence. Authorities will likely deploy heightened security along key thoroughfares and near government buildings throughout the campaign period and in the days following the election. Officials may impose additional restrictive measures, such as temporary curfews, internet shutdowns, or entry and exit restrictions, to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest.

Context

These will be Madagascar's third free elections following a 2009 coup. Exiting president Andry Rajoelina of the ruling Tanora malaGasy Vonona (TGV) party is seeking a third mandate after previously leading the transitional government from 2009-2014 and winning the 2018 election. Twelve other candidates are running, including two other former presidents, Hery Rajaonarimampianina and Marc Ravalomanana, who will likely be Rajoelina's main competition. Madagascar uses a two-round electoral system, with a runoff election planned for Dec. 20.

Eleven of these candidates have been protesting under the name "collectif des 11" against Rajoelina's running due to his reported acquisition in 2014 of French citizenship. Malagasy law states that an adult national who voluntarily seeks foreign citizenship would lose their Malagasy citizenship. And since only Malagasy nationals are constitutionally permitted to run and be elected President, Rajoelina could have been unconstitutionally elected as President and could be banned from running.

Advice

Avoid all protests due to the likelihood of violence. Exercise caution near potential demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent violence-affected areas. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Follow instructions issued by local authorities. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building.