13 Oct 2023 | 10:31 AM UTC
Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across much of the country through at least Oct. 16
Severe weather forecast across much of Mexico through at least Oct. 16. Possible flooding and associated disruptions.
Event
A combination of weather systems is forecast to bring adverse weather across much of Mexico through at least Oct. 16. A cold front is expected to move from northern and northeastern Mexico over eastern and southeastern parts of the country over the coming days, bringing at times very heavy rainfall, storms, and strong winds over eastern, south-central, southeastern, and southern regions. Strong winds may cause dust storms in northern regions and tornadoes are possible in Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas states on Oct. 13. The front will draw in a mass of cold air behind it, leading to a drop in temperatures over central, eastern, and northern regions. The front will also drive a surge of cold winds known as a Norte event which will bring strong gusts and rough seas to eastern coastal areas and the Gulf and Isthmus of Tehuantepec; winds gusting up to 90 kph (56 mph) and waves up to 4 meters (13 feet) are possible in affected areas.
A tropical wave is forecast to move over western Mexico on Oct. 13, bringing showers and storms to the region, and a low-pressure area with the potential for cyclonic development is expected to form off the southwest coast Oct. 15-16, bringing further adverse weather. Low-pressure channels, ingress of moisture from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, and the proximity of the monsoon trough to southern Mexico will also combine to bring further showers and storms across parts of the country over the coming days.
Rainfall totals of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are expected in parts of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Veracruz states Oct. 14-15 and Puebla Oct. 15. Totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are expected in parts of Chiapas, Tabasco, and southern Veracruz Oct. 13, Campeche and Yucatan Oct. 14-16, Hidalgo, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas Oct. 14, Guerrero Oct. 15-16, Puebla Oct. 15, and Chiapas, Michoacan, Oaxaca, and Tabasco Oct. 16. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.
The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.
Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coasts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.
Advice
Monitor local media for updated emergency and weather information. Seek updated information on weather and road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast. Plan accordingly for potential delivery delays if routing shipments by truck through the affected area. Do not attempt to drive through flooded areas. Confirm flights. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
