10 Oct 2023 | 10:02 AM UTC
Mexico: Hurricane Lidia tracking east-northeastward over the North Pacific Ocean towards Jalisco State as of early Oct. 10 /update 1
Hurricane Lidia tracking east-northeastward over North Pacific Ocean, early Oct. 10. Landfall over Jalisco State, Mexico, late Oct. 10.
Event
Hurricane Lidia is tracking east-northeastward over the North Pacific Ocean early Oct. 10. As of 03:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 435 km (270 miles) southwest of Islas Marias.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will track generally northeastwards while strengthening into a category 2 hurricane and make landfall over Jalisco State, Mexico, late Oct. 10. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken rapidly as it tracks northeast across northwestern Jalisco State before dissipating over far southern Nayarit State early Oct. 11. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.
As of early Oct. 10, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Hurricane warning: Islas Marias; Playa Perula to Escuinapa
Hurricane watch: Manzanillo to Playa Perula
Tropical storm warning: Escuinapa to Mazatlan; Manzanillo to Playa Perula
Hurricane conditions are likely to reach the coast within the warning area over the coming hours. Forecast models indicate rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and coastal Jalisco states in western Mexico through Oct. 11.
A dangerous storm surge is forecast to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where Lidia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over the coming days. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Classes and government services are suspended in Nayarit, Jalisco, and Sinaloa states and the municipality of Los Cabos in Baja California Sur State Oct. 10. The storm has forced fishermen in northern Sinaloa State to take refuge in the port of Topolobampo; the port remains closed to smaller vessels. Mazatlan Port is also closed to smaller vessels, while Cabo San Lucas Port is closed to all vessels.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
