Nigeria: Rallies likely in Bayelsa, Kogi, and Imo states ahead of Nov. 11 governorship elections

Event

Political gatherings are likely across Bayelsa, Kogi, and Imo states ahead of, during, and after the off-cycle governorship elections scheduled for Nov. 11. Campaigning activities are legally allowed through Nov. 9. Such demonstrations are most likely to take place in the state capitals of Owerri, Lokoja, and Yenagoa, and other urban centers.

A heightened security presence is likely in the vicinity of all gatherings. Security forces will maintain a heightened security posture near polling stations as officials have warned of possible violence and to prevent intimidation of voters or the presence of vote-buyers. Clashes between supporters of rival political groups remain possible throughout the election period, as well as other forms of election-related violence, including targeted assassinations and abductions. Militant and criminal attacks targeting election-related events are also possible before and during the vote. Officials may impose restrictive measures such as temporary curfews to prevent or in response to significant unrest. Disruptions to transport, businesses, and other services are possible on and around the polling day.

Context

Tensions are often elevated during national and local elections. The off-cycle elections in the aforementioned states come after the general election held in early 2023. The opposition has challenged the outcome of the presidential election, while the results of the governorship elections are also currently challenged across various states. Reports of fraud, including vote buying and rigging, as well as acts of political violence and intimidation, were reported during the general election. It is estimated that about 100 people died in election-related violence from January to March 2023.

Advice

Monitor local political developments, avoid all demonstrations, refrain from discussing political topics in public, and obey all instructions issued by the local authorities. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Exercise extreme caution and refrain from nonessential activities across the affected states on Nov. 11.