04 Oct 2023 | 04:39 AM UTC
North Atlantic: Tropical Storm Philippe tracking northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean north of the Virgin Islands as of late Oct. 3 /update 2
TS Philippe tracking northwest in the North Atlantic Ocean late Oct. 3. Close approach to Bermuda Oct. 6.
Event
Tropical Storm Philippe is tracking northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean north of the Virgin Islands late Oct. 3. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 195 km (120 miles) north-northwest of Saint Thomas.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain its strength as it tracks generally northwards away from the Leeward Islands while strengthening slightly and making a close approach to Bermuda Oct. 6, passing west of the island. Philippe is forecast to continue northwards while strengthening slightly through Oct. 7 before making landfall over Maine, US, early Oct. 8 and tracking north-northwestwards across far southeastern Quebec Province, Canada, through late Oct. 8. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
As of late Oct. 3, authorities have rescinded all coastal watches or warnings. Officials in Bermuda will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) is likely across the US and British Virgin Islands and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over Puerto Rico through Oct. 4. The rainfall is likely to result in scattered flash flooding. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the Virgin Islands through early Oct. 4.
Swells generated by Philippe are forecast to affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the coming days and are likely to reach Bermuda late Oct. 5; these are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Reports indicate flooding across Dominica and Guadeloupe. Authorities in Guadeloupe confirmed that around 2,500 customers are without power and several communities are without running water. Leeward Islands Air Transport (LI) canceled five flights across the Leeward Islands Oct. 2. Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Martin, and Saint Barthelemy closed schools Oct. 3. Several public educational institutions in Antigua and Barbuda were used as shelters.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
