19 Oct 2023 | 03:34 AM UTC
North Atlantic: Tropical Storm Tammy tracking westward in the North Atlantic Ocean east of Barbados as of late Oct. 18
TS Tammy tracking westward in the North Atlantic Ocean late Oct. 18. Close approach to Barbados early Oct. 20.
Event
Tropical Storm Tammy is tracking westward in the North Atlantic Ocean late Oct. 18. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 855 km (530 miles) east of the Windward Islands.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen as it tracks generally west-northwestward and makes a close approach to Barbados early Oct. 20, passing northeast of the island. Tammy is forecast to strengthen further as it turns to track northwestward and make a close approach to Guadeloupe late Oct. 20 before making landfall as a tropical storm over Antigua Island, Antigua and Barbuda, early Oct. 21. The storm is likely to pass just east of Anguilla late Oct. 21 before strengthening into a category 1 hurricane late Oct. 22 as it tracks north-northwestward then northeastward away from the Leeward Islands through late Oct. 23. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
As of late Oct. 18, authorities have issued a tropical storm watch for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and Guadeloupe. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Oct. 20. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Rainfall totals of up to 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are likely portions of the northern Windward into the Leeward Islands and 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) over the British and US Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico through late Oct. 21.
Swells generated by Tammy are forecast to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles from Oct. 19; these are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
