21 Oct 2023 | 04:40 AM UTC
North Pacific Ocean: Hurricane Norma tracking north-northwestward off the western coast of Mexico as of late Oct. 20 /update 2
Hurricane Norma tracking north-northwest in the North Pacific Ocean, late Oct. 20. Landfall over Baja California Sur, Mexico, late Oct. 21.
Event
Hurricane Norma is maintaining Category 3 hurricane strength and is tracking north-northwestward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean late Oct. 20. As of 21:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 235 km (145 miles) south of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur State.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will turn to track generally northwards, weaken into a Category 2 hurricane, and make landfall over southern Baja California Sur late Oct. 21 before weakening further into a Category 1 hurricane as it exits into the Gulf of California early Oct. 22. Norma is then likely to weaken further into a tropical storm as it tracks northeastward across the southern Gulf of California Oct. 22-early Oct. 23 and make landfall over Sinaloa State near Eldorado early Oct. 23. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken rapidly and dissipate over far northwestern Durango State late Oct. 23. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.
As of late Oct. 20, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Hurricane Warning: Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles.
Tropical Storm Warning: Baja California Sur north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo and north of Todos Santos to Santa Fe.
Tropical Storm Watch: Las Islas Marias and from Topolobampo to Mazatlan.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Baja California Sur Oct. 21, with tropical storm conditions imminent. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in the tropical storm warning areas from early Oct. 21 and are possible in Las Islas Marias late Oct. 20 and in the watch area along the west coast of Mexico Oct. 22. Forecast models indicate rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) with localized maximums up to 37.5 cm (15 inches) across far southern Baja California Sur through Oct. 22 and across portions of Sinaloa through Oct. 23. A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Large and destructive waves near the coast will likely accompany the surge. Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of Mexico's southwestern and west-central coast and Baja California Sur. Swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through Oct. 22. The swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Los Cabos International Airport (SJD) in San Jose del Cabo, Baja California Sur, is closed through at least noon Oct. 22. Maritime authorities have closed the ports of La Cruz de Huanacaxtle and San Blas in Nayarit State, Barra de Navidad in Jalisco State, and Manzanillo in Colima State to smaller vessels. Authorities closed schools in Los Cabos and La Paz municipalities in Baja California Sur State Oct. 20.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
