19 Oct 2023 | 09:46 AM UTC
North Pacific Ocean: Hurricane Norma tracking northward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean as of early Oct. 19
Hurricane Norma tracking northward over the North Pacific Ocean, early Oct. 19. Landfall over Baja California Sur, Mexico, late Oct. 21.
Event
Hurricane Norma has strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane and is tracking northward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean early Oct. 19. As of 03:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 440 km (275 miles) southwest of Manzanillo, Colima State.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will briefly strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane, before weakening back into a Category 3 and then Category 2 storm as it tracks generally north-northwestward off the west coast of Mexico Oct. 19-20. The system is then expected to weaken into a Category 1 hurricane as it turns to track north-northeastward and then northward Oct. 21, before making landfall over the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula late Oct. 21 as either a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm. After making landfall, Norma will continue to weaken as it turns to track slowly northeastward over far southern Baja California State and into the southern Gulf of California Oct. 22-23. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.
As of early Oct. 19, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Hurricane watch: The Baja California Peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area from early Oct. 21. Forecast models indicate rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) with localized maximums up to 37.5 cm (15 inches) across far southern Baja California Sur state through Oct. 22. Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of Mexico's southwestern coast and will spread northward along the west coast toward the Baja California peninsula over the coming days. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
