South China Sea: Typhoon Koinu tracking westward east of Hong Kong, China, early Oct. 6 /update 5

Event

Typhoon Koinu (known in the Philippines as Jenny) is tracking westward across the South China Sea early Oct. 6, following landfall over far southern Taiwan the previous day. As of 11:00 CST, the system's center of circulation is approximately 365 km (228 miles) east of Hong Kong.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks westward across the South China Sea just offshore of the coast of Guangdong Province, China, through Oct. 9. Koinu is then forecast to weaken further into a tropical depression and make landfall over Hainan Province early Oct. 10. The system will likely dissipate southwest of the province early Oct. 11. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

Officials in Taiwan are maintaining various rain warnings. The most severe impact is forecast east and south of the island. A full list of advisories are available here. Authorities have confirmed one fatality in Taichung City due to broken glass and 304 injuries across Taiwan. More than 180 domestic flights, 46 international flights, 110 trains, and 136 ferries were canceled Oct. 3-5. Parts of provincial highways 8, 9, 20, 23, 24, and 29 were closed as a safety precaution. At the height of the storm, more than 329,000 households were without power and more than 4,513 households suffered water shortages; as of the afternoon of Oct. 5, more than 69,000 remain without power and 1,725 remain without water. All administrative regions except for Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, and Taoyuan cities announced bank, school, and government office closures Oct. 5; some schools and offices in Pingtung, Taitung, and Yunlin counties remain closed Oct. 6.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a yellow typhoon warning (second lowest level on a four-tier scale); heavy rainfall of 5-9 cm (2-3.5 inches) are forecast in southeastern Fujian and northeastern Guangdong provinces. The city of Guangzhou canceled some flights and trains, while Fujian and Guangdong provinces suspended hundreds of ferries Oct. 6.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger additional localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also likely to persist. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Hong Kong Observatory
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
China Meteorological Administration