26 Oct 2023 | 03:56 PM UTC
Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of late October /update 243
Combat is ongoing in most regions of eastern and southern Ukraine as of late October; both sides report minor gains.
Ukrainian and Russian forces remain engaged in combat operations in parts of eastern and southern Ukraine through late October. The areas of most intense combat are Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. On the Ukrainian forces' side, assaults have decreased since early October following months of high-tempo operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Although Kyiv's forces report occasional gains, major operations likely will remain suspended through Autumn 2023. Russian troops report limited success as they maintain pressure in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions. The overall posture of the opposing forces is unlikely to change through at least mid-November. The areas mostly targeted by Russian artillery remain the bordering regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv; airstrikes have continued with alternating intensity in southern and central Ukraine through October.
Russian forces maintain pressure in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, particularly around Kupyansk, and offensive actions will likely continue through early November. Incremental gains of Moscow's troops remain possible, although Ukrainian forces repel most assaults on their lines. The position of the frontline is unlikely to change in the short term until major offensive operations restart, most likely in the winter months of 2024. Authorities in Kharkiv Region concentrate their efforts on countering aerial attacks and clearing UXO while boosting the resilience of the energy network ahead of winter.
In Donetsk Region, both Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in small-scale offensive operations, obtaining incremental gains with no clear strategic significance. Ukrainian forces maintain a mostly offensive stance south of Bakhmut, where occasional gains may occur; Russian troops meanwhile launch assaults on Avdiivka, northwest of Donetsk city, in a likely attempt to pressure Ukrainian forces to retreat from the stronghold, with intermittent success.
The initiative remains mostly in Ukrainian hands in Zaporizhzhia Region, where Ukrainian forces report minimal gains; the intensity of the attacks on Russian lines has reportedly decreased, although intelligence suggests that occasional assaults continue. Operations on southern Kherson have resumed since mid-October; Ukrainian forces maintain a significant presence on the eastern bank of the Dnieper river, although no noteworthy advance occurred as of late October.
Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's northern, central, and western regions remain limited; the southern regions of Odesa and Mykolaiv are consistently targeted by loitering munitions and long-range missiles, likely launched from Crimea. Russian artillery and rocket strikes in eastern Ukraine continue; the most targeted areas include the frontline regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Cross-border artillery strikes in the Sumy region have continued.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.
Russia's offensive activity will likely decrease through mid-Autumn due to the deterioration of weather conditions and to allow for rest and recuperation of units that will likely be deployed in further offensives once winter conditions have settled. Ukrainian counteroffensive operations will also likely wind down as winter months approach. Kyiv's pressure on the areas of Bakhmut and the southern Zaporizhzhia region will likely continue through the upcoming weeks and months, with less intensity. Ukrainian artillery fire on Russian supply routes and force concentrations in the Tokmak area is likely in the immediate term; artillery targeting Russia's logistical networks in southern Ukraine will likely continue through Autumn, creating unfavorable conditions for Russian forces deployed in southern Zaporizhzhia and southern Kherson.
Russian forces remain well entrenched along most of the line of contact in the south and east and will continue to conduct counterattacks to slow and occasionally reverse Ukrainian advances. Russia's forces will likely resume major offensive operations through winter, once the weather and terrain conditions will have stabilized. Ukrainian artillery strikes will likely continue to thwart Russian logistics in a possible attempt to further decrease the morale of Russian deployed forces as wetter and colder months approach.
As colder months approach, Russian forces will likely resume airstrikes targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (CNI); these reportedly increased through mid-September; however, Moscow's tactics have changed over the past year. Airstrikes are more frequent but involve fewer missiles and a higher number of loitering munitions. Airstrikes are likely less costly for Russia to maintain. Ukraine demonstrated exceptional reconstruction capabilities over the previous winter; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine's CNI, stretching Kyiv's capacity, rather than launching costly attacks whose effects would be swiftly mitigated by Ukraine's emergency teams. Nonetheless, increasing power shortages are likely through the winter of 2023-2024.
