Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Oct. 12 /update 241

Event

Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in combat operations in parts of the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions as of Oct. 12. Russian forces have increased their offensive operational tempo throughout Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Luhansk regions, reporting incremental gains over the week of Oct. 5-12. Ukrainian forces appear to be shifting to defensive operations throughout the line of contact. Russian strikes on central and western Ukraine continued through Oct. 5-12, targeting Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Mykolaiv regions.

Russian forces reportedly increased the tempo of offensive activities west of the Svatove-Kreminna line in eastern Ukraine, launching assaults on Ukrainian-held positions north of Kupyansk and around Ivanivka. Russian ground operations are preceded by intensified artillery shelling and, although most attacks are reportedly repelled, incremental gains might have occurred in parts of the frontline.

The majority of Russian offensive activity Oct. 5-12 was reported around Avdiivka, a heavily fortified Ukrainian stronghold in the Donetsk Region. Avdiivka was at the center of Russia’s offensive activities through winter 2022-2023 and will likely remain one of the most active areas in the upcoming weeks. Russian forces launched several assaults against Ukrainian positions northwest and southwest of Avdiivka, with the support of heavy artillery bombardments; Russian forces are likely seeking to encircle the well-fortified settlement.

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have reportedly slowed over the week of Oct. 5-12, although occasional gains are reported in the two main areas of ongoing counteroffensive activity: Bakhmut, Donetsk Region, and in southern Zaporizhzhia Region. However, Ukraine’s assaults on Verbove, in the Zaporizhzhia Region, were met with strong Russian resistance.

Russian airstrikes on Ukraine’s north and western regions decreased Oct. 5-12; artillery and rocket strikes in eastern Ukraine continue; the frontline regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia were mainly affected. Cross-border artillery strikes in the Sumy region have continued; unconfirmed reports allege that eight Russian saboteurs attempted to cross the Russia-Ukraine border in the Sumy Region early on Oct. 12 but were intercepted by Ukrainian forces.

Southern Ukraine remains under threat of Russian loitering munitions and missile attacks, which reportedly affect the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions almost daily. Ukrainian air defense intercepts most Russian aerial offensive weapons; however, falling debris and occasional hits continue to cause damage and casualties in both regions.

Context

Ukraine's counteroffensive actions will likely decrease through early Autumn due to the deterioration of weather conditions and to allow for rest and recuperation of units deployed in counteroffensive operations since early summer. Pressure on the areas of Bakhmut and the southern Zaporizhzhia region will likely continue through the upcoming weeks and months. Kyiv's forces will likely continue attempts to advance in the direction of Tokmak from the Robotyne-Verbove salient in the Zaporizhzhia Region. While a breakthrough in the direction of Tokmak remains possible in the coming weeks, direct Ukrainian artillery fire on Russian supply routes and force concentrations in the Tokmak area are more likely in the immediate term.

Russian forces remain well entrenched along most of the line of contact in the south and east and will continue to conduct counterattacks to slow and occasionally reverse Ukrainian advances. Russia's forces will likely resume major offensive operations through winter, once the weather and terrain conditions will have stabilized. Ukrainian artillery strikes will likely continue to thwart Russian logistics in a possible attempt to further decrease the morale of Russian deployed forces as wetter and colder months approach. however,

As colder months approach, Russian forces will likely resume airstrikes targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (CNI); these reportedly increased through mid-September; however, Moscow's tactics have changed over the past year. Airstrikes are more frequent but involve fewer missiles and a higher number of loitering munitions. Airstrikes are likely less costly for Russia to maintain. Ukraine demonstrated exceptional reconstruction capabilities over the previous winter; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine's CNI, stretching Kyiv's capacity, rather than launching costly attacks whose effects would be swiftly mitigated by Ukraine's emergency teams. Nonetheless, increasing power shortages are likely through the winter of 2023-2024.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.