Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Oct. 19 /update 242

Event

Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in combat operations in parts of the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions as of Oct. 19. Ukrainian forces had limited success south of Orikhiv and around Bakhmut, although no breakthrough was reported; small contingents of Ukrainian forces reportedly crossed the Dnieper River east of Kherson, retrieving some ground. Russian troops kept pressure on eastern Ukraine, launching assaults in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions. Russian airstrikes reportedly concentrated on southern regions through Oct. 13-19, targeting Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

Russian forces reportedly continued to launch assaults near Kupyansk in Kharkiv Region Oct. 13-19, marking no significant advance. Ukrainian reports of Russian prisoners in the area suggest that the Russian forces used in the assault included recently recruited fighters with limited battlefield experience. Artillery strikes continue in the region. Civilian casualties in Kharkiv Region remain significant, largely caused by Russian artillery strikes and unexploded ordnance (UXO). Ukrainian forces have launched several unsuccessful counterattacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line through Oct. 13-19.

Moscow's main offensive operations remain concentrated on Avdiivka, a heavily fortified Ukrainian stronghold in the Donetsk Region. Russian forces launched several assaults against Ukrainian positions northwest and southwest of Avdiivka, with the support of heavy artillery bombardments; Russian forces are likely seeking to encircle the well-fortified settlement.

Ukrainian forces assaulted the eastern bank of the Dnieper River overnight Oct. 17-18; intelligence suggests a small number of Ukrainian troops advanced near the settlements of Pishchanivka and Poyma. Occasional gains are reported in the two other main areas of counteroffensive activity: Bakhmut, Donetsk Region, and in southern Zaporizhzhia Region. However, no breakthroughs have been reported.

Kyiv confirms receiving ATACMs missiles, and reportedly deployed the weapon against Russian airfields in Luhansk Region, Russian-occupied Ukraine, and Berdyansk Oblast, Russia, on Oct. 17. The strike reportedly destroyed several Russian helicopters, ammunition depots, and an air defense system. Reports suggest that the attack was coordinated with the support of Ukrainian special operations forces.

Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's northern and western regions remained consistent with the previous reporting period; the regions mostly affected Oct. 13-19 include Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk. Russian artillery and rocket strikes in eastern Ukraine continue; the most targeted areas include the frontline regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Cross-border artillery strikes in the Sumy region have continued.

Context

Ukraine's counteroffensive actions will likely decrease through early Autumn due to the deterioration of weather conditions and to allow for rest and recuperation of units deployed in counteroffensive operations since early summer. Pressure on the areas of Bakhmut and the southern Zaporizhzhia region will likely continue through the upcoming weeks and months. Kyiv's forces will likely continue attempts to advance in the direction of Tokmak from the Robotyne-Verbove salient in the Zaporizhzhia Region. While a breakthrough in the direction of Tokmak remains possible in the coming weeks, direct Ukrainian artillery fire on Russian supply routes and force concentrations in the Tokmak area are more likely in the immediate term.

Russian forces remain well entrenched along most of the line of contact in the south and east and will continue to conduct counterattacks to slow and occasionally reverse Ukrainian advances. Russia's forces will likely resume major offensive operations through winter, once the weather and terrain conditions will have stabilized. Ukrainian artillery strikes will likely continue to thwart Russian logistics in a possible attempt to further decrease the morale of Russian deployed forces as wetter and colder months approach,

As colder months approach, Russian forces will likely resume airstrikes targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (CNI); these reportedly increased through mid-September; however, Moscow's tactics have changed over the past year. Airstrikes are more frequent but involve fewer missiles and a higher number of loitering munitions. Airstrikes are likely less costly for Russia to maintain. Ukraine demonstrated exceptional reconstruction capabilities over the previous winter; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine's CNI, stretching Kyiv's capacity, rather than launching costly attacks whose effects would be swiftly mitigated by Ukraine's emergency teams. Nonetheless, increasing power shortages are likely through the winter of 2023-2024.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.