Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Oct. 5 /update 240

Event

Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in combat operations in parts of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions as of Oct 5. Ukrainian forces are maintaining offensive momentum in southern Zaporizhzhia, reportedly breaking through the main Russian defensive line, while minor Russian assaults continue to take place in Luhansk regions. Russian and Ukrainian forces maintain a high airstrike tempo through Sept. 29-Oct. 5, targeting Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Mykolaiv regions.

Russian forces maintain a low tempo of offensive activities in Kharkiv Region; assaults are reported west of the Svatove-Kreminna line, particularly in Novoselivske, although no faction confirmed any gains. Russian forces continue to shell Ukrainian positions and settlements around Kupyansk, often causing civilian casualties and electricity shortages in the region. The latest strike occurred on Oct. 5 in Hroza, Kupyansk district, Kharkiv Region, reporting at least 49 casualties.

Ukraine continues to concentrate most of its offensive efforts in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions Sept. 28-Oct. 5. In southern Zaporizhzhia, reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russia’s main defensive line; Kyiv’s forces are slowly advancing in two directions in likely attempts to penetrate Russia’s secondary lines of defense. Combat is ongoing south of the recaptured town of Robotyne, in the direction of Novoprokopivka, and west of the Russian-held town of Verbove, although the outskirts of the town are likely contested.

Ukrainian assaults have continued south of Bakhmut in the Donetsk Region Sept. 28-Oct 5. Kyiv’s troops are engaged in combat in the direction of the railway between the settlements of Andriivka and Klishchiivka, both recently recaptured. Ukrainian forces have reportedly made incremental gains, maintaining pressure on Russian forces deployed in the area.

In western and central Ukraine, air raid alarms sounded daily due to Russian airstrikes Sept. 29-Oct. 5. Moscow’s forces have increasingly targeted port infrastructure, grain storehouses, and critical national infrastructure (CNI). Russian forces targeted the cities of Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, and Izmail using loitering munitions and, occasionally, cruise missiles.

Ukrainian special operation forces reportedly launched an amphibious assault on Crimea's coastline early on Oct. 4, attacking Russian positions and retreating quickly afterward; the mission appears to be of similar scope and size to another assault on Crimea which successfully took place on Aug. 24. Further similar assaults, likely aimed at perturbing Russian forces defending Crimea, are possible. Ukrainian forces continued to target the peninsula Sept. 29-Oct. 5; the Russian Black Sea Fleet has reportedly moved almost all its vessels from the Sevastopol base to Novorossisk, confirming the success of the ongoing Ukraine’s aerial campaign; in the short- and medium-term, further attacks to Russia’s strategic facilities will continue, in the likely attempt to starve Russian forces deployed in the peninsula. Authorities confirm that the Kerch Strait Bridge is intermittently closed due to undisclosed reasons, disrupting military transport and civilian road traffic in the area.

Context

Ukraine's methodical counteroffensive actions will likely continue to focus on three main areas in the immediate term: Bakhmut and the Mokri Yaly River area in the Donetsk Region, and areas south of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Kyiv’s forces will likely continue attempts to advance in the direction of Tokmak from the Robotyne-Verbove salient in the Zaporizhzhia Region. While a breakthrough in the direction of Tokmak is possible in the coming weeks, direct Ukrainian artillery fire on Russian supply routes and force concentrations in the Tokmak area are more likely in the immediate term.

Russian forces remain well entrenched along most of the line of contact in the south and continue to conduct counterattacks to slow and occasionally reverse Ukrainian advances. Further Ukrainian assaults south of the Robotyne-Verbove salient will likely require Ukrainian forces to advance on well-defended positions over open terrain. In the east, Russian forces will likely continue to conduct assaults in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, specifically north of Kupyansk and on the Svatove-Kreminna line respectively, as Moscow seeks to divert Ukrainian resources from further gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Russian airstrikes on Ukraine’s CNI reportedly increased through mid-September; however, Moscow’s tactics have changed over the past year. Airstrikes are more frequent but involve fewer missiles and a higher number of loitering munitions. Airstrikes are likely less costly for Russia to maintain. Ukraine demonstrated exceptional reconstruction capabilities over the previous winter; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine’s CNI, stretching Kyiv’s capacity, rather than launching costly attacks whose effects would be swiftly mitigated by Ukraine’s emergency teams. Nonetheless, increasing power shortages are likely through the winter of 2023-2024.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.