07 Oct 2023 | 09:21 AM UTC
West Pacific: TD 15W tracking westwards in the West Pacific Ocean, northeast of Fananu Island, Micronesia, evening Oct. 7
TD 15W tracking westwards in West Pacific Ocean evening Oct. 7; close approach to Chuuk and Yap states, Micronesia through Oct. 9.
Event
Tropical Depression 15W is tracking west-northwest in the West Pacific Ocean, northeast of Fananu Island, Micronesia, evening Oct. 7. As of 19:00 ChST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,050 km (652 miles) east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.
Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a tropical storm over the coming hours as it makes a close approach to Chuuk and Yap states, Federated States of Micronesia through Oct. 9, passing north of the states. The storm is forecast to strengthen further into a typhoon as it turns to track northwestwards and passes between Guam and Rota the evening of Oct. 10. The system is then likely to intensify further as it slowly turns to track northwards while passing west of the Northern Marianas Islands through Oct. 12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
The US National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement warning of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and hazardous seas and surf across the Marianas. Rainfall of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches), locally higher amounts near 30.5 cm (12 inches), is forecast late Oct. 9-afternoon Oct. 11. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger additional localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also likely to persist. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
