30 Nov 2023 | 02:56 PM UTC
Ethiopia: Security situation likely to remain volatile in Amhara Region through at least late December amid ongoing military operations /update 5
Volatile security situation likely to remain in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, through at least late December amid ongoing military operations.
The security situation in Amahra Region will likely remain volatile through at least late December amid ongoing security operations. Federal forces are undertaking military operations to integrate a local militia known as FANO into the government's security structures. Amhara activists opposed the decision and viewed the move as a way to reduce autonomy and leave the region vulnerable to attack. This decision has sharply increased tensions between the federal government and FANO.
As of Nov. 30, several armed clashes have been reported in the North Shewa, North and South Wello, and East Gojam zones. FANO fighters asserted that they had successfully released several combatants held by the ENDF forces during night operations in Woldia town, North Wollo zone, overnight Nov. 24-25. Additionally, the six-month state of emergency (SoE) declared on Aug. 4 remains in place as of Nov. 30. Civil unrest incidents have also led officials to impose various restrictions, including mobile internet access restrictions, in several areas.
The federal government will likely maintain a heavy army presence, including deploying armored vehicles across the Amhara region, particularly in major cities such as Bahir Dar, Gondar, Dessie, Mota, and Kombolcha. Fighting between the federal government forces and FANO is possible if the militia group refuses to surrender its weapons to authorities. The army may impose curfews, patrols, and checkpoints in affected urban areas. Ongoing security operations may result in travel restrictions and short-term ground transport disruptions. Intermittent internet disruptions are also possible in the coming weeks.
Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Heed the instructions of the security forces. Travel with personal identification documents to facilitate transit through checkpoints. Liaise with trusted local contacts before traveling to or within Amhara Region. Reconfirm all transport services before departure. Avoid concentrations of security personnel and travel at night. Plan for possible short-term telecommunication disruptions.
The federal government's move came despite strong criticism, especially from ethnic-Amhara activists and members of the National Movement of the Amhara (NaMA) party, who see the move as a way for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to disarm FANO so that the neighboring Tigray Region can regain control of disputed territories, the Wolkait woreda in western Tigray and the Raya zone in southern Tigray. Amhara forces controlled the Wolkait and Raya zones in November 2020 following the military confrontation between the federal troops and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels. FANO fought alongside the national forces against TPLF rebels between 2020-2022.
Fighting between the federal government and TPLF rebels ended on Nov. 2 after signing a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa. Several steps have been taken to implement the peace deal, including forming an Interim Regional Administration (IRA) and removing the TPLF from the designated terrorist list. Despite positive trends, key issues remain, including the withdrawal of non-government forces (Eritrean troops and Amhara militias) from Tigray territory.
