30 Nov 2023 | 02:53 PM UTC
Madagascar: Heightened tensions, protests likely nationwide through at least mid-December following presidential election results. /update 7
Increased tensions, protests likely across Madagascar through at least mid-December following presidential election results.
Officials will likely maintain an increased security posture nationwide at least through mid-December after the electoral commission (CENI) declares incumbent President Andry Rajoelina the victor of the presidential election. His inauguration is reportedly planned for Dec. 8 or 9; officials are yet to confirm the date. Rajoelina was reelected for a third term on Nov. 16 with about 58.95 percent of the votes according to the CENI; definitive results will reportedly be announced by the High Constitutional Court (HCC) on Dec. 1. International observers have mostly validated the election, though with some reports of fraud and intimidation.
The ten opposition candidates who boycotted the election have announced that they would not recognize the results and continue protest action. Opposition gatherings remain likely nationwide in the coming weeks, especially in Antananarivo. The potential for clashes with security forces is elevated. In addition, four high-ranking military officers were reportedly arrested; authorities have not released any official statement on the issue.
Heightened security will be most significant in main urban centers, including Antananarivo, along key thoroughfares and near government buildings. Security measures may include roadblocks, checkpoints, and searches of vehicles and pedestrians. A similar curfew to that imposed ahead of the first round may be reinstated to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest. Officials may also impose additional restrictive measures, such as internet shutdowns.
Avoid all protests due to the likelihood of violence. Exercise caution near potential demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent violence-affected areas. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Follow instructions issued by local authorities.
These were Madagascar's third free elections following a 2009 coup. Rajoelina of the ruling Tanora malaGasy Vonona (TGV) party won a third mandate after governing Madagsacar from 2009-2014 and 2018-2023. Twelve other candidates were running, though ten of these boycotted the election and have been protesting under the name "collectif des 10" against Rajoelina due to his acquisition in 2014 of French citizenship. Malagasy law states that an adult national who voluntarily seeks foreign citizenship would lose their Malagasy citizenship. And since only Malagasy nationals are constitutionally permitted to run and be elected President, the opposition perceives Rajoelina as illegitimate.
Protests occurred regularly throughout the campaign despite a ban on outdoor rallies, leading to clashes with security forces across the capital, especially along the Avenue de l'Independence and near the Place du 13 Mai. The first round of voting was initially planned for Nov. 9 but was postponed by a week by the HCC due to one of the candidates being injured during a protest. Police have repeatedly blocked access to the plaza, and have systematically repelled protesters with teargas and water cannons.
