25 Nov 2023 | 09:25 AM UTC
Madagascar: Incumbent president declared winner of the presidential election Nov. 25; increased security, protests likely /update 6
Increased security, protests likely across Madagascar through at least late November following Nov. 25 presidential election results.
Officials will likely maintain an increased security posture nationwide through at least late November after the electoral commission declared on Nov. 25 that incumbent president Andry Rajoelina was the winner of the Nov. 16 presidential election in the first round with about 58,95 percent of the votes. Results are preliminary and should be confirmed within the following days by the High Constitutional Court (HCC). International observers have mostly validated the election, though with some reports of fraud and intimidation. However, ten opposition candidates boycotted the election and announced that they would not recognize the results and continue protest action. There has been no reported planned action as of writing. Opposition gatherings remain likely nationwide in the coming hours and days, especially in Antananarivo. The potential for clashes with security forces is elevated.
Heightened security will be most significant in main urban centers, including Antananarivo, along key thoroughfares and near government buildings. Security measures may include roadblocks, checkpoints, and searches of vehicles and pedestrians. A similar curfew imposed ahead of the first round may be reinstated to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest. Officials may also impose additional restrictive measures, such as internet shutdowns.
Avoid all protests due to the likelihood of violence. Exercise caution near potential demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent violence-affected areas. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Follow instructions issued by local authorities.
These are Madagascar's third free elections following a 2009 coup. Rajoelina of the ruling Tanora malaGasy Vonona (TGV) party was seeking a third mandate after previously leading the transitional government from 2009-2014 and winning the 2018 election. Twelve other candidates were running, including two other former presidents, Hery Rajaonarimampianina and Marc Ravalomanana. The first round of voting was initially planned for Nov. 9 but was postponed by a week by the HCC due to one of the candidates being injured during a protest. Madagascar uses a two-round electoral system, with a runoff election planned for Dec. 20.
Ten of these candidates have called for a boycott of the election and have been protesting under the name "collectif des 10" against Rajoelina's running due to his reported acquisition in 2014 of French citizenship. Malagasy law states that an adult national who voluntarily seeks foreign citizenship would lose their Malagasy citizenship. And since only Malagasy nationals are constitutionally permitted to run and be elected President, the opposition perceives Rajoelina as illegitimate.
Protests occurred regularly throughout the campaign despite a ban on outdoor rallies, leading to clashes with security forces across the capital, especially along the Avenue de l'Independence and near the Place du 13 Mai. Police have repeatedly blocked access to the plaza, and have systematically repelled protesters with teargas and water cannons.
