Russia: Adverse weather forecast to continue across southwestern regions through at least Nov. 30

Severe weather is forecast to continue across parts of southwestern Russia through at least Nov. 30. A storm system over the Black Sea has been impacting the area since Nov. 26 and will bring further strong winds, heavy precipitation, and rough seas to the region through at least late Nov. 27. Further showers and strong winds are forecast in the region over the coming days. Precipitation may fall as snow in parts of the affected region, particularly over higher ground.

The ongoing adverse weather has led to flooding and storm damage in parts of the affected area. Authorities have reported one fatality in Sochi and one in Novorossiysk as of Nov. 27 and another person died onboard a vessel amid rough seas in the Kerch Strait. Coastal flooding has been reported in Sochi and several roads have been made impassable due to floodwaters in the affected region. Thousands of people are without power across the region due to the storm. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium and Russia's Transneft state oil pipeline company have halted crude oil loadings at Novorossiysk port due to the adverse weather.

As of Nov. 27, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following weather warnings across the affected area:

• Red coastal event warning (the highest level on a three-tier scale): Sochi.

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings: Sochi.

• Orange flood warning: Rostov Oblast.

• Orange other hazard warnings for rain, strong winds, and possible flooding: Krasnodar Krai and Karachay-Cherkess Republic.

• Orange snow warnings: Kabardino-Balkar Republic.

• Orange other hazard warnings for rough seas: Sochi.

• Orange strong wind warnings: Krasnodar Krai and Stavropol Krai.

• Yellow heavy rain warnings: Republic of Adygea, Kabardino-Balkar Republic, and Stavropol Krai.

• Yellow rain-flood warnings: Krasnodar Krai.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Sochi.

• Yellow freezing rain warnings: Rostov Oblast and Stavropol Krai.

• Yellow avalanche warnings: Sochi and Karachay-Cherkess Republic.

• Yellow freeze warnings: Sochi.

• Yellow ice warnings: Rostov Oblast.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Republic of Adygea, Rostov Oblast, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, and Stavropol Krai.

• Yellow fog warning: Kabardino-Balkar Republic and Stavropol Krai.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Authorities may issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, and/or landslides impact utility networks.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the affected area. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.

Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.