Europe: Further rallies and security alerts related to Israel-Hamas conflict likely across the region through early January /update 11

Continued demonstrations and increased security related to the Israel-Hamas conflict are likely throughout Europe through early January. On Dec. 12, the Netherlands joined several other countries in raising its national terrorism threat rating, increasing it to "substantial" (fourth on a five-point scale.) At least 7,000 protesters marched in Paris on Dec. 3 to express support for Palestine and to demand a ceasefire, while thousands more participated in similar protests throughout the UK on the same day. Thousands of demonstrators attended marches against antisemitism in Berlin and Brussels on Dec. 10.

Protest Activity
Further protests denouncing the Israel-Hamas conflict are likely across Europe through early January. Many pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian demonstrations have taken place in multiple cities across the region, including London, Madrid, Rome, and Stockholm, since the start of the conflict on Oct. 7. Many of these demonstrations continue to attract tens of thousands of participants. Security forces usually deploy enhanced measures to respond to protests; police have arrested demonstrators displaying public support for Hamas and in response to clashes and vandalism. While authorities in some countries, including France, Germany, Hungary, Switzerland, and Austria, have banned some pro-Palestinian demonstrations, many have still occurred in these countries, particularly in France and Germany. Nonetheless, permitted demonstrations occur amid tight security and specific restrictions; multiple violators have been arrested.

Likely protest locations include public squares, city centers, government buildings, major transport hubs, mosques and Islamic cultural centers, synagogues, Palestinian diplomatic offices, and Israeli embassies or consulates. Protesters in Denmark and the UK have targeted defense industry companies linked to Israel; further, similar events are likely. Since late October, multiple groups have organized sit-in protests inside major train stations with little to no warning, causing disruptions within the stations but avoiding delays to trains themselves. In Turkiye, protesters have organized demonstrations at franchise locations of prominent Western-owned fast food and cafe companies, prompting the US Embassy in Turkiye to issue a warning advising visitors to exercise caution at such locations. Protests have also occurred in Turkiye at US government and military facilities. Such events may spread to other countries. Incidents that cause significant loss of life in either the Gaza Strip or Israel will likely spark impromptu protests. Clashes between rival groups of demonstrators or between demonstrators and law enforcement officers are possible. Localized road travel delays are likely near any protests that materialize.

Heightened Security
National governments will continue to review security alert levels in response to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and in the wake of terrorist attacks, targeted arson, and other security threats. German and French authorities warn of increased risks of terrorist attacks in their respective countries as of early December. Authorities in Austria, France, the Netherlands, and Portugal have raised their terrorism threat warning levels, while Spain has increased security. Sweden has called on its nationals outside the country to remain vigilant after two Swedes were killed in the Oct. 16 attack in Brussels, Belgium. Israel's National Security Council has called on Israeli citizens in Turkiye to leave the country as soon as possible following violent protests outside Israeli diplomatic offices in that country. Authorities in multiple countries, including Denmark, France, Germany, Norway, the UK, and Sweden, have increased security force deployments and patrols outside some synagogues and mosques, as well as Israeli, Palestinian, Jewish, and Islamic interests. Authorities in France, Germany, and the UK report significant increases in antisemitic and Islamophobic crimes, including verbal abuse and vandalism. The US Embassy in North Macedonia has warned of an increased risk of terrorist attacks due to heightened global tensions. On Dec. 7, French authorities warned of an elevated risk of terrorist incidents in Turkiye, particularly in Istanbul and other large cities.

Increased security will likely be deployed in Christmas markets and public events through late December due to the recent increase in terror-related risks. On Nov. 29, German authorities arrested two people in relation to the Islamic State (IS) reportedly organizing terrorist attacks in North Rhine-Westphalia and Brandenburg.

Security levels will likely remain elevated across Europe until authorities determine that the threat has abated. Increased security is likely around sensitive sites and potential targets, including government offices, religious centers, and police headquarters. Security-related disruptions are possible for international arrivals at airports, maritime ports, and land border crossings. There has been an increase in security incidents across the region amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. High-density areas such as schools, government buildings, train stations, and airports in several countries have received multiple bomb threat warnings throughout early December.

Border Security
As of Dec. 21, the following countries have implemented increased security checks at their borders. The enhanced checks are permitted under Article 25 of the Schengen Borders Code, in response to specific security threats. The European Commission's full details are here.

• Austria: Border with Slovakia until Feb. 3, 2024; Border with Czech Republic until Feb. 16, 2024; Borders with Hungary and Slovenia until May 11, 2024

• Czech Republic: Border with Slovakia until Jan. 3, 2024

• Denmark: All borders (land, sea, and air), with a focus on the Danish-German land border and Danish ports with ferry connection to Germany until May 11, 2024.

• France: All borders until April 30, 2024

• Germany: Land borders with Czech Republic, Poland, and Switzerland, until March 15, 2024; Land border with Austria until May 11, 2024

• Norway: Ports with ferry connections to the Schengen area until May 11, 2024

• Poland: Border with Slovakia until Jan. 2, 2024

• Slovakia: Border with Hungary until Jan. 22, 2024

• Slovenia: Borders with Croatia and Hungary until June 21, 2024

• Sweden: All borders until May 11, 2024.

Likely Impact
Responses to potential security incidents, including suspicious packages and bomb threats, will likely be enhanced throughout the region in the coming weeks as a precaution. Additional security procedures may disrupt organized gatherings such as conferences, religious and public commemorations, and sporting and other cultural events. Precautionary security force reactions, including evacuations and search operations, will likely prompt short notice and short-term business and public transport disruptions.