04 Dec 2023 | 02:05 PM UTC
Madagascar: Heightened security, protests likely nationwide through Dec. 16 ahead of Presidential inauguration /update 8
Increased security, protests likely across Madagascar through Dec. 16 ahead of Presidential inauguration in Antananarivo.
Officials will likely maintain an increased security posture nationwide at least through Dec. 16 ahead of the presidential inauguration at the Barea Mahamasina Stadium in Antananarivo. The High Constitutional Court (HCC) confirmed President Andry Rajoelina as the victor of the presidential election with around 59 percent of the vote on Dec. 1.
The ten opposition candidates who boycotted the election have announced that they would not recognize the results and will continue protest action. Opposition gatherings remain likely nationwide in the coming weeks, especially in Antananarivo. The potential for clashes with security forces is elevated.
Heightened security is likely in main urban centers along key thoroughfares and near government buildings, especially in Antananarivo on Dec. 16. Security measures may include roadblocks, checkpoints, and searches of vehicles and pedestrians; security measures may also affect air travel at Ivato International Airport (TNR) as visiting dignitaries arrive and later depart. A similar curfew to that imposed ahead of the first round may be reinstated to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest. Officials may also impose additional restrictive measures, such as internet shutdowns.
Exercise particular caution in Antananarivo on Dec. 16, especially near the Barea Mahamasina Stadium. Avoid all protests due to the likelihood of violence. Plan for increased security at TNR and near the stadium; consider taking alternative routes to circumvent any protests. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Follow instructions issued by local authorities.
These were Madagascar's third free elections following a 2009 coup. Rajoelina of the ruling Tanora malaGasy Vonona (TGV) party won a third mandate after governing Madagsacar from 2009-2014 and 2018-2023. Twelve other candidates were running, though ten of these boycotted the election and have been protesting under the name "collectif des 10" against Rajoelina due to his acquisition in 2014 of French citizenship. Malagasy law states that an adult national who voluntarily seeks foreign citizenship would lose their Malagasy citizenship. And since only Malagasy nationals are constitutionally permitted to run and be elected President, the opposition perceives Rajoelina as illegitimate.
Protests occurred regularly throughout the campaign despite a ban on outdoor rallies, leading to clashes with security forces across the capital, especially along the Avenue de l'Independence and near the Place du 13 Mai. The first round of voting was initially planned for Nov. 9 but was postponed by a week by the HCC due to one of the candidates being injured during a protest. Police have repeatedly blocked access to the plaza, and have systematically repelled protesters with teargas and water cannons.
