Philippines: Adverse weather forecast across northeastern regions through at least Dec. 24

Severe weather is forecast across parts of the northeastern Philippines through at least Dec. 24. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather advisory warning that a combination of the northeast monsoon and shear line will significant amounts of rainfall in the affected area over the coming days. Rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are expected in Aurora, Isabela, and Quezon provinces and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) in Apayao, Cagayan (including the Babuyan Islands), Camarines Norte, and Quirino provinces Dec. 22. Further daily rainfall amounts of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are expected across parts of the affected area Dec. 23-24. As of Dec. 22, PAGASA has issued moderate general flood advisories (the lowest level on a four-tier scale) across Apayao, Aurora, Cagayan, Camarines Norte, Isabela, and Quezon provinces. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.