22 Dec 2023 | 11:34 AM UTC
Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of late December /update 245
Combat is ongoing in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine as of late December; both sides report minor gains.
Combat operations between Ukrainian and Russian forces are ongoing in parts of eastern and southern Ukraine as of late December. The most intense combat continues to be reported in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Kyiv's forces have adopted an increasingly defensive stance in recent weeks following months of high-tempo operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russian forces report occasional gains; however, major operations will likely remain suspended into early 2024. Ukrainian forces continue to maintain a presence on the left bank of the Dnieper River; however, no significant advances have been made and Russian counterattacks are ongoing. Russian artillery fire continues to target parts of Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions that border Russian-held territory; airstrikes have continued with alternating intensity in southern and central Ukraine.
Russian forces have increasingly seized offensive momentum around Avdiivka, in Donetsk Region, and Kupyansk, in Kharkiv Region. Moscow's troops make incremental gains in both areas, suffering high casualty rates, although Ukrainian forces repel most assaults on their lines; major shifts in the front line are unlikely in the short term. Russian assaults will likely maintain an increased offensive tempo in these areas in the coming weeks.
Ukrainian forces shifted to a mostly defensive position in Zaporizhzhia, where Moscow's troops recovered some lost positions in recent weeks. Combat will likely continue in southern Zaporizhzhia with alternating attacks and counterattacks by both sides without significant changes. Russian forces may resume major operations in early 2024. Operations in southern Kherson are ongoing. However, Ukrainian gains are limited, and reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly able to withstand Ukrainian advances and reverse them in some areas.
Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's northern, central, and western regions continue to increase in frequency and intensity as of late December. Russian forces have conducted numerous drone and missile attacks in recent weeks, including significant attacks on Kyiv and Odesa on Dec. 14 and Dec. 21-22. However, Ukrainian air defense systems have reported a high rate of interception. Nonetheless, falling missile debris continues to pose a risk of causing damage and casualties. Commercial infrastructure and residential buildings reported damage following the overnight Russian aerial attack on Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kyiv over Dec. 21-22. Further aerial bombardments are highly likely.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.
Offensive activity will likely decrease due to the deterioration of weather conditions over the coming weeks; however, Russia may seek to capitalize on the relative pause in combat operations to reposition forces for coming offensives and strengthen its defensive positions. Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have all but concluded, having delivered limited gains since they began in July. Kyiv will likely increasingly focus on digging in defensively, and deep strikes on Russian logistical nodes, command posts, and ammunition depots. Russian forces remain well entrenched along most of the line of contact in the south and east and will continue to conduct counterattacks to slow and occasionally reverse advances made by Ukraine during the summer. Russia's forces will likely resume major offensive operations once winter weather has frozen now-sodden ground, making it suitable for heavy equipment maneuvers.
Russian forces will likely resume intense airstrikes targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (CNI) as freezing temperatures set in; however, Moscow's tactics have changed over the past year. Airstrikes are more frequent but involve fewer missiles and a higher number of loitering munitions. Airstrikes are likely less costly for Russia to maintain. Ukraine demonstrated exceptional reconstruction capabilities over the previous winter; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine's CNI, stretching Kyiv's capacity, rather than launching costly attacks whose effects would be swiftly mitigated by Ukraine's emergency teams. Nonetheless, increasing power shortages are likely through the winter of 2023-2024.
