Europe: Further rallies and security alerts related to Israel-Hamas conflict likely across the region through early February /update 12

Protests and demonstrations in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict will almost certainly continue in major cities across Europe through at least early February. Additionally, increased security measures in response to a perceived increased terrorism threat in connection with the conflict will also continue.

Protest activity
Pro-ceasefire, pro-Israel, and pro-Palestinian demonstrations will likely continue to take place in cities across the region, particularly in response to conflict developments, including high-casualty incidents, humanitarian pauses, diplomatic efforts, and trial proceedings at the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court. Many of these demonstrations continue to attract tens of thousands of participants, including in the UK, France, and Germany.

Likely protest locations include public squares, city centers, government buildings, major transport hubs, mosques and Islamic cultural centers, synagogues, Palestinian diplomatic offices, and Israeli embassies or consulates. Protesters in Denmark and the UK have targeted defense industry companies with links to Israel. In Turkiye and Cyprus, demonstrations have taken place near US and UK military bases, respectively. Protests have also taken place at Western franchise restaurants in Turkiye and the UK perceived to have links with Israel. These protests may spread to other countries in the region. Tight security typically accompanies related demonstrations. Clashes between rival groups of demonstrators or between demonstrators and law enforcement officers are possible. Localized road travel delays are likely near any protests that materialize.

Heightened Security
National governments will continue to review security alert levels in response to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and in the wake of terrorist attacks, targeted arson, and other security threats. The Islamic State claimed a Jan. 28 terror attack in Istanbul, Turkiye, that killed one person in a church, saying the attack took place in response to the group's call to target Jewish and Christian worshipers. Turkish authorities conducted a wave of arrests on Jan. 3, targeting suspected Islamic State members accused of planning attacks against churches and synagogues. At least 47 additional suspects were arrested in the days following the Jan. 28 attack. French authorities warned on Dec. 7 of an elevated risk of terrorist incidents in Turkiye, particularly in Istanbul and other large cities. Israel had also called on its citizens to leave Turkiye as soon as possible following a series of protests outside Israeli diplomatic offices in October.

Authorities in Austria, the Netherlands, and Portugal have raised their terrorism threat warning levels, while Spain has increased security. France lowered its terrorism threat level in mid-January after raising it following a knife attack in October. Sweden has called on its nationals outside the country to remain vigilant after two Swedes were killed in an Oct. 16 attack in Brussels, Belgium.

Security levels will likely remain elevated across Europe until authorities determine that the threat has abated. Increased security is likely around sensitive sites and potential targets, including government offices, synagogues and mosques, and Israeli, Palestinian, Jewish, and Islamic interests. Security-related disruptions are possible for international arrivals at airports, maritime ports, and land border crossings. Authorities in France, Germany, and the UK report significant increases in antisemitic and Islamophobic crimes, including verbal abuse and vandalism.

There has been an increase in security incidents across the region amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. Responses to potential security incidents, including suspicious packages and bomb threats, will likely be enhanced throughout the region in the coming weeks as a precaution. Precautionary security force reactions, including evacuations and search operations, will likely prompt short notice and short-term business and public transport disruptions. Additional security procedures may disrupt organized gatherings such as conferences, religious and public commemorations, and sporting and other cultural events.