Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Belal tracking southeastward after making landfall over Reunion Jan. 15 /update 4

Tropical Cyclone Belal is tracking southeastward in the western Indian Ocean Jan. 15, having made landfall over northwestern Reunion around 10:00 RET and passed over the island. As of 16:00, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 122 km (76 miles) southeast of Saint-Denis, Reunion.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken into a severe tropical storm as it tracks east-southeastward and then eastward away from the Mascarene Islands through Jan. 17. The storm is then likely to weaken further into a moderate tropical storm as it stalls and turns to track northward and then north-northwestward to the south of Rodrigues Island Jan. 18-20. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Jan. 15, Meteo France La Reunion is maintaining a red cyclone warning (the second highest level on a four-tier scale) across the territory. Orange rough sea warnings have also been issued for northern, western, and southwestern coastal areas, and yellow rough seas warnings across the rest of the coast. Showers and winds are expected to begin to weaken overnight Jan. 15-16 as the storm system moves away from Reunion. The Mauritius Meteorological Service has issued a class three (out of four) cyclone warning for Mauritius. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities in Reunion advised people to take shelter from late Jan. 14 until the storm has passed; officials have yet to issue the all-clear. A list of reception centers for those in need of shelter can be found here. Operations have been suspended at Roland Garros Airpor (RUN) from 16:00 Jan. 14 until further notice. The island's coastal road has also been closed from 16:00 Jan. 14 until further notice. Around 150,000 people are without power across Reunion as of Jan. 15 and water supply has been disrupted in many areas. Initial reports indicate some minor damage to property, several roads blocked by landslides, and some minor flooding across the island.

Authorities in Mauritius have also reported flooding, damage, and at least one storm-related fatality as of Jan. 15. Educational facilities have been closed across Mauritius and public hospitals are only providing emergency services. Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) has been closed from 16:30 Jan. 15 until further notice.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.