Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression Bheki tracking west-southwestward toward the Greater Mascarene Islands early Nov. 21 /update 4

Tropical Depression Bheki is tracking west-southwestward in the western Indian Ocean toward Mauritius and Reunion early Nov. 21, having passed north of Rodrigues Island, Mauritius, early Nov. 20. As of 01:00 MUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 257 km (160 miles) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Forecast models indicate the system will maintain its strength and pass just to the south of Mauritius main island early Nov. 21 and then just to the south of Reunion late Nov. 21. The system will weaken further into a zone of disturbed weather as it tracks southwestward away from the Mascarene Islands late Nov. 21-22. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Nov. 21, the Mauritius Meteorological Service has rescinded all cyclone warnings for Rodrigues Island and Mauritius Island. Authorities have issued strong wind warnings and heavy rain watches for Mauritius Island through the evening of Nov. 21. Moderate to locally heavy showers with the risk of thunderstorms are expected over much of Mauritius Island. with the heaviest rainfall likely over the Central Plateau. Winds gusting up to 70 kph (45 mph) and rough seas are also expected during the passing of the storm. A heavy swell warning is in place for Mauritius and Rodrigues islands through the evening of Nov. 21. Meteo France La Reunion has issued yellow strong wind warnings across eastern and northwestern Reunion and yellow rough sea warnings for eastern and southeastern coastal areas. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.