Indian Ocean: Moderate Tropical Storm Bheki tracking westward toward the Greater Mascarene Islands Nov. 20 /update 3

Moderate Tropical Storm Bheki is tracking westward in the western Indian Ocean toward Mauritius and Reunion Nov. 20, having passed north of Rodrigues Island, Mauritius, early Nov. 20. As of 13:00 MUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 846 km (526 miles) east of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken slightly as it gradually starts to track in a more southwestward trajectory and passes to the south of Mauritius main island early Nov. 21 and then to the south of Reunion late afternoon and early evening Nov. 21. The system will weaken further into a tropical depression and then zone of disturbed weather as it tracks southwestward away from the Mascarene Islands late Nov. 21-early Nov. 22. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Nov. 20, the Mauritius Meteorological Service is maintaining a class one (out of four) cyclone warning for Mauritius Island and warnings for Rodrigues Island have been downgraded to a cyclone safety warning. Conditions are expected to gradually improve in Rodrigues as the system moves away from the island; however, isolated showers and storms, winds gusting up to 90 kph (56 mph), rough seas, and storm surge may continue over the coming hours. Showers are expected over much of Mauritius Island. with the heaviest rainfall likely over the Central Plateau. Winds gusting up to 70 kph (43 mph) and rough seas are also expected during the passing of the storm. Meteo France La Reunion has issued yellow rough sea warnings for eastern and southeastern coastal areas. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.